bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Rockies

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final ARI 8 – COL 6
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI0023210008122
COL000200040682
Team box
ARI·COL
12
hits
8
3
home runs
0
4
walks
4
11
strikeouts
8
144
pitches thrown
171
2
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corbin CarrollARI2-4323
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI2-5112
Gabriel MorenoARI3-4200
Willi CastroCOL1-3002
Jake McCarthyCOL2-4101
Troy JohnstonCOL2-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Soroka (W)ARI5.26228
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00010
Michael Lorenzen (L)COL4.29635

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +6
ARI +6
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · ARI 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 61%, COL 39% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
ARI by 1.8
Expected score
ARI 6.5 – 4.7 COL
Expected total
11.2
DiamondbacksThe matchupRockies
−159Our fair odds+159
6.5Expected runs4.7
−0.01Power rating−0.57
4.3Runs / game4.2
4.8Allowed / game5.1
7.9Hits / game8.4
0.84Home runs / game0.96
3.0Walks drawn / game2.9
21−23Season record18−28
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · COL chance
Our model fair61.4%38.6%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−15961%−14258.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+15939%+11945.7%———
SpreadARI by 1.8
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−1.8our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.2
Over11.2our total————
Under11.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.8 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 18 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 17 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 16 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byCOL wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more51%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more42%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 9%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.557%
Total over 11.542%
Total over 13.529%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 13 Kstarted
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 7.63 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·COL
May 16 at COL
last game
May 16 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
ARI·COL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.57
4.3
runs / game
4.2
4.8
runs allowed / game
5.1
21−23
season record
18−28
12−9
home record
9−12
9−14
away record
9−16
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.9
hits / game
8.4
0.84
home runs / game
0.96
3.0
walks drawn / game
2.9
7.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
7.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.3
0.45
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

ARI · COL · 53 days
Arizona DiamondbacksColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 5−5
May 16at COLCOL 4 − 2
May 15at COLARI 9 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 16, 2025at COLCOL 10 − 7
Aug 15, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 3
Aug 14, 2025at COLARI 8 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at ARIARI 13 − 6
Aug 9, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5
Aug 8, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 1
Jun 22, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 2

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 16at COL2 − 4L
May 15at COL9 − 1W
May 13at TEX5 − 6L
May 12at TEX4 − 7L
May 11at TEX1 − 0W
May 10vs NYM5 − 1W
May 9vs NYM2 − 1W
May 8vs NYM1 − 3L
May 7vs PIT2 − 4L
May 6vs PIT0 − 1L

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 16vs ARI4 − 2W
May 15vs ARI1 − 9L
May 14at PIT2 − 7L
May 13at PIT10 − 4W
May 12at PIT1 − 3L
May 10at PHI0 − 6L
May 9at PHI3 − 9L
May 8at PHI9 − 7W
May 7vs NYM6 − 2W
May 6vs NYM5 − 10L