bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Rockies

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 7:40 PM CT · Coors Field · Final ARI 9 – COL 1
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI6001002009130
COL100000000141
Team box
ARI·COL
13
hits
4
0
home runs
1
5
walks
0
5
strikeouts
3
100
pitches thrown
163
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ildemaro VargasARI4-5202
Gabriel MorenoARI2-5103
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-4111
Ryan WaldschmidtARI1-4002
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.ARI1-3101
Corbin CarrollARI2-5200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill Kelly (W)ARI9.04103
Kyle Freeland (L)COL3.28743

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +8
ARI +8
123456789
largest lead: COL 0 · ARI 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 62%, COL 38% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
ARI by 1.8
Expected score
ARI 6.7 – 4.8 COL
Expected total
11.5
DiamondbacksThe matchupRockies
−160Our fair odds+160
6.7Expected runs4.8
−0.01Power rating−0.58
4.3Runs / game4.3
4.9Allowed / game5.1
7.7Hits / game8.4
0.88Home runs / game0.98
3.0Walks drawn / game3.0
20−22Season record17−27
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · COL chance
Our model fair61.6%38.4%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−16062%−12154.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+16038%+10149.7%———
SpreadARI by 1.8
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−1.8our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 11.5
Over11.5our total————
Under11.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.8 expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 18 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 17 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 16 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 18 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byCOL wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more51%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more42%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

11.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 3%4 runs: 2%5 runs: 6%6 runs: 5%7 runs: 8%8 runs: 6%9 runs: 9%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 7%14 runs: 5%15 runs: 5%16 runs: 4%17 runs: 4%18 runs: 3%19 runs: 3%20 runs: 2%21 runs: 2%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: 1%25 runs: 1%26 runs: <1%27 runs: <1%28 runs: <1%29 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 9.559%
Total over 11.544%
Total over 13.531%
Total from 10 to 1328%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 12 Kstarted
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 10.05 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·COL
May 13 at TEX
last game
May 14 at PIT
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
ARI·COL
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.58
4.3
runs / game
4.3
4.9
runs allowed / game
5.1
20−22
season record
17−27
12−9
home record
8−11
8−13
away record
9−16
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.4
0.88
home runs / game
0.98
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.0
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.6
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.48
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

ARI · COL · 51 days
Arizona DiamondbacksColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
Aug 17, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 16, 2025at COLCOL 10 − 7
Aug 15, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 3
Aug 14, 2025at COLARI 8 − 2
Aug 10, 2025at ARIARI 13 − 6
Aug 9, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5
Aug 8, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 1
Jun 22, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 2
Jun 21, 2025at COLARI 5 − 3
Jun 20, 2025at COLARI 14 − 8

ARI · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 13at TEX5 − 6L
May 12at TEX4 − 7L
May 11at TEX1 − 0W
May 10vs NYM5 − 1W
May 9vs NYM2 − 1W
May 8vs NYM1 − 3L
May 7vs PIT2 − 4L
May 6vs PIT0 − 1L
May 5vs PIT9 − 0W
May 3at CHC4 − 8L

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
May 14at PIT2 − 7L
May 13at PIT10 − 4W
May 12at PIT1 − 3L
May 10at PHI0 − 6L
May 9at PHI3 − 9L
May 8at PHI9 − 7W
May 7vs NYM6 − 2W
May 6vs NYM5 − 10L
May 4vs NYM2 − 4L
May 3vs ATL6 − 11L