bayesRatings

Rockies at Phillies

MLB · Friday, May 8 · 5:40 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final COL 9 – PHI 7
← MLB / May 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
COL100500100029130
PHI00000205000790
Team box
COL·PHI
13
hits
9
2
home runs
2
3
walks
7
16
strikeouts
11
177
pitches thrown
207
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Hunter GoodmanCOL4-5112
Justin CrawfordPHI3-4112
Tyler FreemanCOL2-6111
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-6111
Kyle KarrosCOL1-4102
Bryson StottPHI1-4102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase DollanderCOL5.23255
Victor Vodnik (W)COL2.00012
Juan Mejia (S)COL1.01001
Jesus LuzardoPHI3.06536
Brad Keller (L)PHI1.03102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +6
COL +6
1234567891011
largest lead: PHI 0 · COL 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 33%, PHI 67% · Updated May 8

Expected margin
PHI by 1.7
Expected score
PHI 5.3 – 3.6 COL
Expected total
8.9
RockiesThe matchupPhillies
+202Our fair odds−202
3.6Expected runs5.3
−0.58Power rating+0.05
4.3Runs / game3.9
4.9Allowed / game5.0
8.5Hits / game7.8
1.00Home runs / game1.08
3.2Walks drawn / game3.0
15−23Season record17−21
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair33.1%66.9%
Kalshi35.6%69.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+20233%+18135.6%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−20267%−22869.5%———
SpreadPHI by 1.7
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 1.7 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more50%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more39%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLChase Dollander SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 14 Kstarted
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 21 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·PHI
May 7 vs NYM
last game
May 7 vs ATH
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
COL·PHI
−0.58
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.3
runs / game
3.9
4.9
runs allowed / game
5.0
15−23
season record
17−21
8−11
home record
10−11
7−12
away record
7−10
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
8−2
8.5
hits / game
7.8
1.00
home runs / game
1.08
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.0
9.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.53
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

COL · PHI · 44 days
Colorado RockiesPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 9−1
Apr 5at COLCOL 4 − 1
Apr 4at COLPHI 2 − 1
Apr 3at COLPHI 10 − 1
May 22, 2025at COLPHI 2 − 0
May 21, 2025at COLPHI 9 − 5
May 20, 2025at COLPHI 7 − 4
May 19, 2025at COLPHI 9 − 3
Apr 3, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1
Mar 31, 2025at PHIPHI 6 − 1

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 7vs NYM6 − 2W
May 6vs NYM5 − 10L
May 4vs NYM2 − 4L
May 3vs ATL6 − 11L
May 2vs ATL1 − 9L
May 1vs ATL6 − 8L
Apr 30at CIN4 − 6L
Apr 29at CIN13 − 2W
Apr 28at CIN2 − 7L
Apr 26at NYM3 − 0W

PHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
May 7vs ATH1 − 12L
May 6vs ATH6 − 3W
May 5vs ATH9 − 1W
May 4at MIA1 − 0W
May 3at MIA7 − 2W
May 2at MIA0 − 4L
May 1at MIA6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF3 − 2W
Apr 28vs SF7 − 0W