bayesRatings

Rockies at Pirates

MLB · Thursday, May 14 · 11:35 AM CT · PNC Park · Final COL 2 – PIT 7
← MLB / May 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000200000250
PIT303010007120
Team box
COL·PIT
5
hits
12
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
7
strikeouts
7
137
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan O'HearnPIT3-4212
Endy RodriguezPIT2-3002
Troy JohnstonCOL1-3002
Jared TrioloPIT2-3001
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-4101
Oneil CruzPIT1-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chase Dollander (L)COL1.05310
Mason MontgomeryPIT1.01003
Carmen Mlodzinski (W)PIT5.04232

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +6
COL +6
123456789
largest lead: PIT 6 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 34%, PIT 66% · Updated May 14

Expected margin
PIT by 1.7
Expected score
PIT 5.1 – 3.4 COL
Expected total
8.5
RockiesThe matchupPirates
+191Our fair odds−191
3.4Expected runs5.1
−0.57Power rating−0.00
4.3Runs / game5.0
5.0Allowed / game4.3
8.5Hits / game8.6
1.00Home runs / game1.05
3.0Walks drawn / game4.2
17−26Season record23−20
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair34.4%65.6%
Kalshi41.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+19134%+14041.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−19166%−17563.6%———
SpreadPIT by 1.7
COLColorado Rockies+1.7our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.7 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more50%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more39%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLChase Dollander SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 17 Kstarted
PITMason Montgomery RP · last 2 starts: 2.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·PIT
May 13 at PIT
last game
May 13 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
COL·PIT
−0.57
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.3
runs / game
5.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
4.3
17−26
season record
23−20
8−11
home record
12−10
9−15
away record
11−10
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.5
hits / game
8.6
1.00
home runs / game
1.05
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
7.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.53
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

COL · PIT · 50 days
Colorado RockiesPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
May 13at PITCOL 10 − 4
May 12at PITPIT 3 − 1
Aug 24, 2025at PITPIT 4 − 0
Aug 23, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 0
Aug 3, 2025at COLPIT 9 − 5
Aug 2, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 5
Aug 1, 2025at COLCOL 17 − 16
Jun 16, 2024at COLPIT 8 − 2
Jun 15, 2024at COLCOL 16 − 4

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 13at PIT10 − 4W
May 12at PIT1 − 3L
May 10at PHI0 − 6L
May 9at PHI3 − 9L
May 8at PHI9 − 7W
May 7vs NYM6 − 2W
May 6vs NYM5 − 10L
May 4vs NYM2 − 4L
May 3vs ATL6 − 11L
May 2vs ATL1 − 9L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 13vs COL4 − 10L
May 12vs COL3 − 1W
May 10at SF6 − 7L
May 9at SF13 − 3W
May 8at SF2 − 5L
May 7at ARI4 − 2W
May 6at ARI1 − 0W
May 5at ARI0 − 9L
May 3vs CIN1 − 0W
May 2vs CIN17 − 7W