bayesRatings

Rockies at Phillies

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 5:05 PM CT · Citizens Bank Park · Final COL 3 – PHI 9
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL010200000361
PHI005110029140
Team box
COL·PHI
6
hits
14
1
home runs
3
2
walks
0
11
strikeouts
7
139
pitches thrown
147
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Alec BohmPHI3-4224
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-5113
Trea TurnerPHI4-5100
Willi CastroCOL1-4111
Kyle KarrosCOL1-4002
Edmundo SosaPHI1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle Freeland (L)COL5.010604
Aaron NolaPHI4.26324
Tim Mayza (W)PHI0.10000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +6
COL +6
123456789
largest lead: PHI 6 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 34%, PHI 66% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
PHI by 1.6
Expected score
PHI 5.4 – 3.8 COL
Expected total
9.2
RockiesThe matchupPhillies
+195Our fair odds−195
3.8Expected runs5.4
−0.55Power rating+0.04
4.4Runs / game4.0
5.0Allowed / game5.1
8.6Hits / game7.9
1.03Home runs / game1.10
3.2Walks drawn / game3.1
16−23Season record17−22
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · PHI chance
Our model fair34.0%66.0%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+19534%+15239.6%———
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−19566%−18364.6%———
SpreadPHI by 1.6
COLColorado Rockies+1.6our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Phillies by 1.6 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 17%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 11%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 8%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 14 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more49%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 9.1 IP, 9.64 ERA, 11 Kstarted
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·PHI
May 8 at PHI
last game
May 8 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 39+ games
COL·PHI
−0.55
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.4
runs / game
4.0
5.0
runs allowed / game
5.1
16−23
season record
17−22
8−11
home record
10−12
8−12
away record
7−10
W2
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
7−3
8.6
hits / game
7.9
1.03
home runs / game
1.10
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.1
9.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.1
7.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.51
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

COL · PHI · 45 days
Colorado RockiesPhiladelphia Phillies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 8−2
May 8at PHICOL 9 − 7
Apr 5at COLCOL 4 − 1
Apr 4at COLPHI 2 − 1
Apr 3at COLPHI 10 − 1
May 22, 2025at COLPHI 2 − 0
May 21, 2025at COLPHI 9 − 5
May 20, 2025at COLPHI 7 − 4
May 19, 2025at COLPHI 9 − 3
Apr 3, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 1
Apr 2, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 1

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
May 8at PHI9 − 7W
May 7vs NYM6 − 2W
May 6vs NYM5 − 10L
May 4vs NYM2 − 4L
May 3vs ATL6 − 11L
May 2vs ATL1 − 9L
May 1vs ATL6 − 8L
Apr 30at CIN4 − 6L
Apr 29at CIN13 − 2W
Apr 28at CIN2 − 7L

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
May 8vs COL7 − 9L
May 7vs ATH1 − 12L
May 6vs ATH6 − 3W
May 5vs ATH9 − 1W
May 4at MIA1 − 0W
May 3at MIA7 − 2W
May 2at MIA0 − 4L
May 1at MIA6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF6 − 5W
Apr 30vs SF3 − 2W