bayesRatings

Rockies at Pirates

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final COL 1 – PIT 3
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000000001140
PIT10001010390
Team box
COL·PIT
4
hits
9
0
home runs
0
0
walks
4
10
strikeouts
7
147
pitches thrown
122
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Oneil CruzPIT3-4200
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4001
Hunter GoodmanCOL1-4001
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-3001
Brandon LowePIT1-3001
Spencer HorwitzPIT2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Lorenzen (L)COL5.05225
Paul Skenes (W)PIT8.020010
Gregory Soto (S)PIT1.02100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: PIT 3 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 34%, PIT 66% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
PIT by 1.8
Expected score
PIT 5.1 – 3.3 COL
Expected total
8.4
RockiesThe matchupPirates
+195Our fair odds−195
3.3Expected runs5.1
−0.58Power rating+0.01
4.3Runs / game5.0
5.1Allowed / game4.3
8.5Hits / game8.7
1.00Home runs / game1.07
3.0Walks drawn / game4.2
16−25Season record22−19
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · PIT chance
Our model fair34.0%66.0%
Kalshi30.4%73.4%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+19534%+22930.4%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−19566%−27673.4%———
SpreadPIT by 1.8
COLColorado Rockies+1.8our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Pirates by 1.8 expected
Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 13%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 15 runs: <1%
← COL wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more51%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more40%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 6.23 ERA, 10 Kstarted
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·PIT
May 10 at PHI
last game
May 10 at SF
1 day
days of rest
1 day
5
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
COL·PIT
−0.58
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.3
runs / game
5.0
5.1
runs allowed / game
4.3
16−25
season record
22−19
8−11
home record
11−9
8−14
away record
11−10
L2
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
6−4
8.5
hits / game
8.7
1.00
home runs / game
1.07
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.2
9.8
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.54
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

COL · PIT · 48 days
Colorado RockiesPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 7−3
Aug 24, 2025at PITPIT 4 − 0
Aug 23, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 1
Aug 22, 2025at PITPIT 9 − 0
Aug 3, 2025at COLPIT 9 − 5
Aug 2, 2025at COLCOL 8 − 5
Aug 1, 2025at COLCOL 17 − 16
Jun 16, 2024at COLPIT 8 − 2
Jun 15, 2024at COLCOL 16 − 4
Jun 14, 2024at COLPIT 5 − 2
May 5, 2024at PITPIT 5 − 3

COL · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
May 10at PHI0 − 6L
May 9at PHI3 − 9L
May 8at PHI9 − 7W
May 7vs NYM6 − 2W
May 6vs NYM5 − 10L
May 4vs NYM2 − 4L
May 3vs ATL6 − 11L
May 2vs ATL1 − 9L
May 1vs ATL6 − 8L
Apr 30at CIN4 − 6L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 10at SF6 − 7L
May 9at SF13 − 3W
May 8at SF2 − 5L
May 7at ARI4 − 2W
May 6at ARI1 − 0W
May 5at ARI0 − 9L
May 3vs CIN1 − 0W
May 2vs CIN17 − 7W
May 1vs CIN9 − 1W
Apr 30vs STL5 − 10L