bayesRatings

Rangers at Astros

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final TEX 0 – HOU 2
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000000000010
HOU00100001251
Team box
TEX·HOU
1
hits
5
0
home runs
1
4
walks
3
6
strikeouts
9
122
pitches thrown
119
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Isaac ParedesHOU1-3111
Braden ShewmakeHOU1-4001
Brice MatthewsHOU2-4000
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-3000
Justin FoscueTEX1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack Leiter (L)TEX7.03136
Spencer Arrighetti (W)HOU7.11045
Bryan King (S)HOU1.20001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 2 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 51%, HOU 49% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.5 – 4.1 HOU
Expected total
8.6
RangersThe matchupAstros
−103Our fair odds+103
4.5Expected runs4.1
+0.03Power rating−0.09
3.8Runs / game4.6
3.8Allowed / game5.6
7.7Hits / game8.7
0.93Home runs / game1.20
3.5Walks drawn / game3.5
21−22Season record17−28
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · HOU chance
Our model fair50.6%49.4%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−10351%−11252.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+10349%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers−0.3our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 12%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byHOU wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more39%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more28%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJack Leiter SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 20 Kstarted
HOUSpencer Arrighetti SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·HOU
May 13 vs ARI
last game
May 14 vs SEA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
TEX·HOU
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
3.8
runs / game
4.6
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.6
21−22
season record
17−28
11−10
home record
10−13
10−12
away record
7−15
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.7
0.93
home runs / game
1.20
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.42
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

TEX · HOU · 51 days
Texas RangersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
Sep 17, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 3
Sep 7, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at TEXHOU 11 − 0
Sep 5, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Jul 13, 2025at HOUTEX 5 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 4
Jul 11, 2025at HOUTEX 7 − 3
May 18, 2025at TEXHOU 4 − 3

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 13vs ARI6 − 5W
May 12vs ARI7 − 4W
May 11vs ARI0 − 1L
May 10vs CHC3 − 0W
May 9vs CHC6 − 0W
May 8vs CHC1 − 7L
May 7at NYY2 − 9L
May 6at NYY6 − 1W
May 5at NYY4 − 7L
May 3at DET1 − 7L

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
May 14vs SEA3 − 8L
May 13vs SEA4 − 3W
May 12vs SEA2 − 10L
May 11vs SEA1 − 3L
May 10at CIN0 − 5L
May 9at CIN1 − 3L
May 8at CIN10 − 0W
May 6vs LAD2 − 12L
May 5vs LAD2 − 1W
May 4vs LAD3 − 8L