bayesRatings

Mariners at Astros

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final SEA 10 – HOU 2
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA02041010210110
HOU011000000250
Team box
SEA·HOU
11
hits
5
2
home runs
0
6
walks
3
4
strikeouts
12
143
pitches thrown
175
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Randy ArozarenaSEA4-4413
Dominic CanzoneSEA1-4115
Braden ShewmakeHOU2-4001
J.P. CrawfordSEA1-3102
Christian WalkerHOU1-3001
Cal RaleighSEA2-4300
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryan Woo (W)SEA6.04229
Tatsuya Imai (L)HOU4.05633

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +8
SEA +8
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · SEA 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 51%, HOU 49% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.7 – 4.3 HOU
Expected total
9.0
MarinersThe matchupAstros
−105Our fair odds+105
4.7Expected runs4.3
+0.06Power rating−0.07
4.0Runs / game4.7
4.0Allowed / game5.5
7.5Hits / game8.8
1.12Home runs / game1.24
3.8Walks drawn / game3.5
20−22Season record16−26
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair51.2%48.8%
Kalshi66.6%37.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10551%−19966.6%———
HOUHouston Astros+10549%+16637.6%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners−0.4our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 12%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byHOU wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more40%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more30%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryan Woo SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.80 ERA, 12 Kstarted
HOUTatsuya Imai SP · last 3 starts: 8.2 IP, 7.27 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·HOU
May 11 at HOU
last game
May 11 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
SEA·HOU
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.0
runs / game
4.7
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.5
20−22
season record
16−26
12−11
home record
9−11
8−11
away record
7−15
W1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.8
1.12
home runs / game
1.24
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.36
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

SEA · HOU · 48 days
Seattle MarinersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 1−9
May 11at HOUSEA 3 − 1
Apr 13at SEASEA 6 − 2
Apr 12at SEASEA 6 − 1
Apr 11at SEASEA 8 − 7
Apr 10at SEASEA 9 − 6
Sep 21, 2025at HOUSEA 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at HOUSEA 6 − 4
Sep 19, 2025at HOUSEA 4 − 0
Jul 20, 2025at SEAHOU 11 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 6

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 11at HOU3 − 1W
May 10at CHW1 − 2L
May 9at CHW1 − 6L
May 8at CHW12 − 8W
May 6vs ATL3 − 1W
May 5vs ATL2 − 3L
May 4vs ATL5 − 4W
May 3vs KC1 − 4L
May 2vs KC2 − 3L
May 1vs KC6 − 7L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 11vs SEA1 − 3L
May 10at CIN0 − 5L
May 9at CIN1 − 3L
May 8at CIN10 − 0W
May 6vs LAD2 − 12L
May 5vs LAD2 − 1W
May 4vs LAD3 − 8L
May 3at BOS3 − 1W
May 2at BOS6 − 3W
May 1at BOS1 − 3L