bayesRatings

Mariners at Astros

MLB · Monday, May 11 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final SEA 3 – HOU 1
← MLB / May 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA021000000370
HOU000010000190
Team box
SEA·HOU
7
hits
9
1
home runs
0
1
walks
3
7
strikeouts
13
157
pitches thrown
123
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Julio RodriguezSEA2-4111
Isaac ParedesHOU3-4001
Jose AltuveHOU3-5100
Randy ArozarenaSEA2-4100
Dominic CanzoneSEA1-3001
Cole YoungSEA1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
George Kirby (W)SEA5.07127
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.01001
Peter Lambert (L)HOU7.06316

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · SEA 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 51%, HOU 49% · Updated May 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 4.7 – 4.3 HOU
Expected total
9.0
MarinersThe matchupAstros
−103Our fair odds+103
4.7Expected runs4.3
+0.05Power rating−0.07
4.1Runs / game4.8
4.0Allowed / game5.6
7.5Hits / game8.8
1.12Home runs / game1.27
3.9Walks drawn / game3.5
19−22Season record16−25
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10351%−14859.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+10349%+12444.7%———
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Mariners−0.4our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byHOU wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more40%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more30%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAGeorge Kirby SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 12 Kstarted
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 1.04 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·HOU
May 10 at CHW
last game
May 10 at CIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
SEA·HOU
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
4.1
runs / game
4.8
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.6
19−22
season record
16−25
12−11
home record
9−10
7−11
away record
7−15
L2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
5−5
7.5
hits / game
8.8
1.12
home runs / game
1.27
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.37
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

SEA · HOU · 47 days
Seattle MarinersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 1−9
Apr 13at SEASEA 6 − 2
Apr 12at SEASEA 6 − 1
Apr 11at SEASEA 8 − 7
Apr 10at SEASEA 9 − 6
Sep 21, 2025at HOUSEA 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at HOUSEA 6 − 4
Sep 19, 2025at HOUSEA 4 − 0
Jul 20, 2025at SEAHOU 11 − 3
Jul 19, 2025at SEASEA 7 − 6
Jul 18, 2025at SEASEA 6 − 1

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 10at CHW1 − 2L
May 9at CHW1 − 6L
May 8at CHW12 − 8W
May 6vs ATL3 − 1W
May 5vs ATL2 − 3L
May 4vs ATL5 − 4W
May 3vs KC1 − 4L
May 2vs KC2 − 3L
May 1vs KC6 − 7L
Apr 29at MIN5 − 3W

HOU · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 10at CIN0 − 5L
May 9at CIN1 − 3L
May 8at CIN10 − 0W
May 6vs LAD2 − 12L
May 5vs LAD2 − 1W
May 4vs LAD3 − 8L
May 3at BOS3 − 1W
May 2at BOS6 − 3W
May 1at BOS1 − 3L
Apr 30at BAL11 − 5W