bayesRatings

Mariners at White Sox

MLB · Friday, May 8 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final SEA 12 – CHW 8
← MLB / May 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA01401033012120
CHW1040000218101
Team box
SEA·CHW
12
hits
10
4
home runs
2
3
walks
3
7
strikeouts
7
143
pitches thrown
156
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luke RaleySEA2-5227
Josh NaylorSEA3-5313
Julio RodriguezSEA2-5211
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-5003
Randal GrichukCHW1-1111
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-4211
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emerson Hancock (W)SEA6.05534
Sean Burke (L)CHW4.16624

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +7
SEA +7
123456789
largest lead: CHW 1 · SEA 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 55%, CHW 45% · Updated May 8

Expected margin
SEA by 0.7
Expected score
SEA 4.6 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
8.5
MarinersThe matchupWhite Sox
−123Our fair odds+123
4.6Expected runs3.9
+0.06Power rating−0.22
4.0Runs / game4.2
3.9Allowed / game4.6
7.5Hits / game7.6
1.11Home runs / game1.22
3.9Walks drawn / game4.0
18−20Season record17−20
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · CHW chance
Our model fair55.1%44.9%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−12355%−13757.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+12345%+11446.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.7
SEASeattle Mariners−0.7our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.7 expected
Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byCHW wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more42%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more31%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 21 Kstarted
CHWSean Burke SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·CHW
May 6 vs ATL
last game
May 6 at LAA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
SEA·CHW
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
4.0
runs / game
4.2
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.6
18−20
season record
17−20
12−11
home record
7−8
6−9
away record
10−12
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.5
hits / game
7.6
1.11
home runs / game
1.22
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.0
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.39
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

SEA · CHW · 44 days
Seattle MarinersChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 2−8
Aug 7, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Aug 6, 2025at SEASEA 8 − 6
Aug 5, 2025at SEASEA 8 − 3
May 21, 2025at CHWSEA 6 − 5
May 20, 2025at CHWCHW 1 − 0
May 19, 2025at CHWSEA 5 − 1
Jul 28, 2024at CHWSEA 6 − 3
Jul 27, 2024at CHWSEA 6 − 3
Jul 26, 2024at CHWSEA 10 − 0
Jun 13, 2024at SEACHW 3 − 2

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 6vs ATL3 − 1W
May 5vs ATL2 − 3L
May 4vs ATL5 − 4W
May 3vs KC1 − 4L
May 2vs KC2 − 3L
May 1vs KC6 − 7L
Apr 29at MIN5 − 3W
Apr 28at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 27at MIN4 − 11L
Apr 26at STL3 − 2W

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 6at LAA2 − 8L
May 5at LAA3 − 4L
May 4at LAA6 − 0W
May 3at SD3 − 4L
May 2at SD4 − 0W
May 1at SD8 − 2W
Apr 29vs LAA3 − 2W
Apr 28vs LAA5 − 2W
Apr 27vs LAA8 − 7W
Apr 26vs WSH1 − 2L