bayesRatings

Mariners at White Sox

MLB · Saturday, May 9 · 6:10 PM CT · Rate Field · Final SEA 1 – CHW 6
← MLB / May 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000010000140
CHW20201001692
Team box
SEA·CHW
4
hits
9
0
home runs
3
4
walks
2
9
strikeouts
10
158
pitches thrown
150
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Miguel VargasCHW2-3223
Colson MontgomeryCHW1-4112
Edgar QueroCHW1-3001
Tristan PetersCHW2-3000
Julio RodriguezSEA2-3000
Jarred KelenicCHW1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Castillo (L)SEA4.05406
Anthony Kay (W)CHW5.03025

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +5
SEA +5
123456789
largest lead: CHW 5 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 56%, CHW 44% · Updated May 9

Expected margin
SEA by 0.8
Expected score
SEA 4.8 – 3.9 CHW
Expected total
8.7
MarinersThe matchupWhite Sox
−127Our fair odds+127
4.8Expected runs3.9
+0.08Power rating−0.24
4.2Runs / game4.3
4.0Allowed / game4.8
7.6Hits / game7.6
1.18Home runs / game1.24
3.9Walks drawn / game4.0
19−20Season record17−21
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · CHW chance
Our model fair55.9%44.1%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−12756%−13156.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+12744%+10947.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.8
SEASeattle Mariners−0.8our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.8 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 11%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 15%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byCHW wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more43%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more32%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 7.31 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CHWAnthony Kay SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 9.95 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·CHW
May 8 at CHW
last game
May 8 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
SEA·CHW
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
4.2
runs / game
4.3
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.8
19−20
season record
17−21
12−11
home record
7−9
7−9
away record
10−12
W2
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
7.6
1.18
home runs / game
1.24
3.9
walks drawn / game
4.0
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.38
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

SEA · CHW · 45 days
Seattle MarinersChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 1−9
May 8at CHWSEA 12 − 8
Aug 7, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 3
Aug 6, 2025at SEASEA 8 − 6
Aug 5, 2025at SEASEA 8 − 3
May 21, 2025at CHWSEA 6 − 5
May 20, 2025at CHWCHW 1 − 0
May 19, 2025at CHWSEA 5 − 1
Jul 28, 2024at CHWSEA 6 − 3
Jul 27, 2024at CHWSEA 6 − 3
Jul 26, 2024at CHWSEA 10 − 0

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 8at CHW12 − 8W
May 6vs ATL3 − 1W
May 5vs ATL2 − 3L
May 4vs ATL5 − 4W
May 3vs KC1 − 4L
May 2vs KC2 − 3L
May 1vs KC6 − 7L
Apr 29at MIN5 − 3W
Apr 28at MIN7 − 1W
Apr 27at MIN4 − 11L

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
May 8vs SEA8 − 12L
May 6at LAA2 − 8L
May 5at LAA3 − 4L
May 4at LAA6 − 0W
May 3at SD3 − 4L
May 2at SD4 − 0W
May 1at SD8 − 2W
Apr 29vs LAA3 − 2W
Apr 28vs LAA5 − 2W
Apr 27vs LAA8 − 7W