bayesRatings

Mariners at Astros

MLB · Thursday, May 14 · 1:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final SEA 8 – HOU 3
← MLB / May 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA3002020108110
HOU001002000350
Team box
SEA·HOU
11
hits
5
2
home runs
1
5
walks
5
6
strikeouts
8
168
pitches thrown
158
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luke RaleySEA2-5213
Yordan AlvarezHOU3-3211
Mitch GarverSEA1-3212
Braden ShewmakeHOU2-4002
J.P. CrawfordSEA2-5101
Brendan DonovanSEA3-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis Castillo (W)SEA5.24336
Mike Burrows (L)HOU5.28734

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +6
SEA +6
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · SEA 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 51%, HOU 49% · Updated May 14

Expected margin
SEA by 0.5
Expected score
SEA 4.7 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
8.9
MarinersThe matchupAstros
−106Our fair odds+106
4.7Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating−0.08
4.2Runs / game4.6
3.9Allowed / game5.6
7.6Hits / game8.8
1.16Home runs / game1.20
3.9Walks drawn / game3.5
21−23Season record17−27
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshi53.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10651%−11653.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+10649%−10751.8%———
SpreadSEA by 0.5
SEASeattle Mariners−0.5our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.5 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byHOU wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more41%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more30%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 14 Kstarted
HOUMike Burrows SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 2.50 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·HOU
May 13 at HOU
last game
May 13 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
SEA·HOU
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
4.2
runs / game
4.6
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.6
21−23
season record
17−27
12−11
home record
10−12
9−12
away record
7−15
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.6
hits / game
8.8
1.16
home runs / game
1.20
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.36
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

SEA · HOU · 50 days
Seattle MarinersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 1−9
May 13at HOUHOU 4 − 3
May 12at HOUSEA 10 − 2
May 11at HOUSEA 3 − 1
Apr 13at SEASEA 6 − 2
Apr 12at SEASEA 6 − 1
Apr 11at SEASEA 8 − 7
Apr 10at SEASEA 9 − 6
Sep 21, 2025at HOUSEA 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at HOUSEA 6 − 4
Sep 19, 2025at HOUSEA 4 − 0

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 13at HOU3 − 4L
May 12at HOU10 − 2W
May 11at HOU3 − 1W
May 10at CHW1 − 2L
May 9at CHW1 − 6L
May 8at CHW12 − 8W
May 6vs ATL3 − 1W
May 5vs ATL2 − 3L
May 4vs ATL5 − 4W
May 3vs KC1 − 4L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 13vs SEA4 − 3W
May 12vs SEA2 − 10L
May 11vs SEA1 − 3L
May 10at CIN0 − 5L
May 9at CIN1 − 3L
May 8at CIN10 − 0W
May 6vs LAD2 − 12L
May 5vs LAD2 − 1W
May 4vs LAD3 − 8L
May 3at BOS3 − 1W