bayesRatings

Mariners at Astros

MLB · Wednesday, May 13 · 7:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final SEA 3 – HOU 4
← MLB / May 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
SEA1000010010381
HOU00000201014121
Team box
SEA·HOU
8
hits
12
2
home runs
1
6
walks
3
11
strikeouts
6
150
pitches thrown
171
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
J.P. CrawfordSEA2-5111
Luke RaleySEA2-3111
Zach ColeHOU3-4001
Christian WalkerHOU1-5111
Jose AltuveHOU0-3002
Braden ShewmakeHOU2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce MillerSEA5.18213
Alex Hoppe (L)SEA0.01000
Lance McCullers Jr.HOU5.17226
Bryan Abreu (W)HOU1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +3
SEA +3
12345678910
largest lead: HOU 1 · SEA 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 52%, HOU 48% · Updated May 13

Expected margin
SEA by 0.6
Expected score
SEA 4.8 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
9.0
MarinersThe matchupAstros
−108Our fair odds+108
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating−0.09
4.2Runs / game4.6
3.9Allowed / game5.7
7.6Hits / game8.7
1.14Home runs / game1.21
3.8Walks drawn / game3.5
21−22Season record16−27
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · HOU chance
Our model fair52.0%48.0%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners−10852%−14258.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+10848%+11945.7%———
SpreadSEA by 0.6
SEASeattle Mariners−0.6our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Mariners by 0.6 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 5%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 8%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 10%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 11%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 9%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byHOU wins by →
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more42%
Seattle Mariners wins by 3 or more31%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEABryce Miller SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 9 Kstarted
HOULance McCullers Jr. SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 9.22 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·HOU
May 12 at HOU
last game
May 12 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
SEA·HOU
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
4.2
runs / game
4.6
3.9
runs allowed / game
5.7
21−22
season record
16−27
12−11
home record
9−12
9−11
away record
7−15
W2
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.6
hits / game
8.7
1.14
home runs / game
1.21
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.35
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

SEA · HOU · 49 days
Seattle MarinersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 1−9
May 12at HOUSEA 10 − 2
May 11at HOUSEA 3 − 1
Apr 13at SEASEA 6 − 2
Apr 12at SEASEA 6 − 1
Apr 11at SEASEA 8 − 7
Apr 10at SEASEA 9 − 6
Sep 21, 2025at HOUSEA 7 − 3
Sep 20, 2025at HOUSEA 6 − 4
Sep 19, 2025at HOUSEA 4 − 0
Jul 20, 2025at SEAHOU 11 − 3

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 12at HOU10 − 2W
May 11at HOU3 − 1W
May 10at CHW1 − 2L
May 9at CHW1 − 6L
May 8at CHW12 − 8W
May 6vs ATL3 − 1W
May 5vs ATL2 − 3L
May 4vs ATL5 − 4W
May 3vs KC1 − 4L
May 2vs KC2 − 3L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
May 12vs SEA2 − 10L
May 11vs SEA1 − 3L
May 10at CIN0 − 5L
May 9at CIN1 − 3L
May 8at CIN10 − 0W
May 6vs LAD2 − 12L
May 5vs LAD2 − 1W
May 4vs LAD3 − 8L
May 3at BOS3 − 1W
May 2at BOS6 − 3W