bayesRatings

Rangers at Astros

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 1:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final TEX 8 – HOU 0
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000020501870
HOU000000000050
Team box
TEX·HOU
7
hits
5
2
home runs
0
2
walks
2
8
strikeouts
10
111
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BurgerTEX2-4214
Kyle HigashiokaTEX2-4213
Zach DezenzoHOU2-4000
Brandon NimmoTEX1-4001
Nick AllenHOU1-2000
Braden ShewmakeHOU1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Nathan Eovaldi (W)TEX7.05028
Peter Lambert (L)HOU6.03526

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +8
TEX +8
123456789
largest lead: HOU 0 · TEX 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 50%, HOU 50% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.3 – 4.1 HOU
Expected total
8.4
RangersThe matchupAstros
+100Our fair odds−100
4.3Expected runs4.1
+0.01Power rating−0.08
3.6Runs / game4.5
3.7Allowed / game5.4
7.5Hits / game8.5
0.89Home runs / game1.26
3.6Walks drawn / game3.5
21−24Season record19−28
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · HOU chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers+10050%−12655.7%———
HOUHouston Astros−10050%+10548.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers−0.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Houston Astros by 1 run: 17%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byHOU wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more37%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more27%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXNathan Eovaldi SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 18 Kstarted
HOUPeter Lambert SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·HOU
May 16 at HOU
last game
May 16 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
TEX·HOU
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
3.6
runs / game
4.5
3.7
runs allowed / game
5.4
21−24
season record
19−28
11−10
home record
12−13
10−14
away record
7−15
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.5
0.89
home runs / game
1.26
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.40
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

TEX · HOU · 53 days
Texas RangersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 7−3
May 16at HOUHOU 4 − 1
May 15at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 3
Sep 7, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at TEXHOU 11 − 0
Sep 5, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Jul 13, 2025at HOUTEX 5 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 4

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 16at HOU1 − 4L
May 15at HOU0 − 2L
May 13vs ARI6 − 5W
May 12vs ARI7 − 4W
May 11vs ARI0 − 1L
May 10vs CHC3 − 0W
May 9vs CHC6 − 0W
May 8vs CHC1 − 7L
May 7at NYY2 − 9L
May 6at NYY6 − 1W

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 16vs TEX4 − 1W
May 15vs TEX2 − 0W
May 14vs SEA3 − 8L
May 13vs SEA4 − 3W
May 12vs SEA2 − 10L
May 11vs SEA1 − 3L
May 10at CIN0 − 5L
May 9at CIN1 − 3L
May 8at CIN10 − 0W
May 6vs LAD2 − 12L