bayesRatings

Rangers at Astros

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 6:10 PM CT · Daikin Park · Final TEX 1 – HOU 4
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX000000100160
HOU20020000450
Team box
TEX·HOU
6
hits
5
0
home runs
4
8
walks
1
9
strikeouts
5
119
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jose AltuveHOU1-4111
Christian WalkerHOU1-3111
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-3111
Zach ColeHOU1-3111
Joc PedersonTEX1-3001
Zach DezenzoHOU1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob deGrom (L)TEX6.05404
Kai-Wei Teng (W)HOU5.02047
Bryan Abreu (S)HOU1.11010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +4
TEX +4
123456789
largest lead: HOU 4 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 50%, HOU 50% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TEX 4.3 – 4.2 HOU
Expected total
8.5
RangersThe matchupAstros
−102Our fair odds+102
4.3Expected runs4.2
+0.02Power rating−0.09
3.7Runs / game4.5
3.7Allowed / game5.5
7.5Hits / game8.6
0.91Home runs / game1.20
3.5Walks drawn / game3.5
21−23Season record18−28
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · HOU chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−10250%−14859.7%———
HOUHouston Astros+10250%+12444.7%———
Spreadabout even
TEXTexas Rangers−0.2our margin————
HOUHouston Astros+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Texas Rangers by 12 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 13%Houston Astros by 1 run: 16%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 5%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byHOU wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more37%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more27%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 22 Kstarted
HOUKai-Wei Teng RP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 7.00 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·HOU
May 15 at HOU
last game
May 15 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
TEX·HOU
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
3.7
runs / game
4.5
3.7
runs allowed / game
5.5
21−23
season record
18−28
11−10
home record
11−13
10−13
away record
7−15
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
7.5
hits / game
8.6
0.91
home runs / game
1.20
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.6
0.41
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

TEX · HOU · 52 days
Texas RangersHouston Astros
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · HOU 6−4
May 15at HOUHOU 2 − 0
Sep 17, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 2
Sep 16, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 5
Sep 15, 2025at HOUHOU 6 − 3
Sep 7, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 2
Sep 6, 2025at TEXHOU 11 − 0
Sep 5, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 3
Jul 13, 2025at HOUTEX 5 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at HOUHOU 5 − 4
Jul 11, 2025at HOUTEX 7 − 3

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 15at HOU0 − 2L
May 13vs ARI6 − 5W
May 12vs ARI7 − 4W
May 11vs ARI0 − 1L
May 10vs CHC3 − 0W
May 9vs CHC6 − 0W
May 8vs CHC1 − 7L
May 7at NYY2 − 9L
May 6at NYY6 − 1W
May 5at NYY4 − 7L

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 15vs TEX2 − 0W
May 14vs SEA3 − 8L
May 13vs SEA4 − 3W
May 12vs SEA2 − 10L
May 11vs SEA1 − 3L
May 10at CIN0 − 5L
May 9at CIN1 − 3L
May 8at CIN10 − 0W
May 6vs LAD2 − 12L
May 5vs LAD2 − 1W