bayesRatings

Rangers at Angels

MLB · Friday, May 22 · 8:38 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final TEX 6 – LAA 9
← MLB / May 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX0003011016110
LAA402000129130
Team box
TEX·LAA
11
hits
13
2
home runs
4
3
walks
4
6
strikeouts
3
131
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Zach NetoLAA2-4222
Wade MecklerLAA2-3113
Oswald PerazaLAA3-4111
Brandon NimmoTEX2-5112
Danny JansenTEX1-4111
Logan O'HoppeLAA1-4002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob deGrom (L)TEX3.06633
Grayson Rodriguez (W)LAA5.27425

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +6
TEX +6
123456789
largest lead: LAA 6 · TEX 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 58%, LAA 42% · Updated May 22

Expected margin
TEX by 1.3
Expected score
TEX 5.1 – 3.8 LAA
Expected total
8.8
RangersThe matchupAngels
−137Our fair odds+137
5.1Expected runs3.8
+0.03Power rating−0.36
3.9Runs / game3.9
3.7Allowed / game5.3
7.8Hits / game7.4
0.94Home runs / game1.14
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
24−25Season record17−34
6−4Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · LAA chance
Our model fair57.9%42.1%
Kalshi62.7%42.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:38 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−13758%−16862.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+13742%+13442.7%———
SpreadTEX by 1.3
TEXTexas Rangers−1.3our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 1.3 expected
Texas Rangers by 15 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 5%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byLAA wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more48%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more37%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJacob deGrom SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 4.66 ERA, 21 Kstarted
LAAGrayson Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 7.36 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·LAA
May 20 at COL
last game
May 21 vs ATH
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
TEX·LAA
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
3.9
runs / game
3.9
3.7
runs allowed / game
5.3
24−25
season record
17−34
11−10
home record
9−16
13−15
away record
8−18
W2
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
1−9
7.8
hits / game
7.4
0.94
home runs / game
1.14
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.7
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.41
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

TEX · LAA · 58 days
Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 5−5
Aug 27, 2025at TEXTEX 20 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at TEXLAA 4 − 0
Jul 30, 2025at LAATEX 6 − 3
Jul 29, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 4
Jul 10, 2025at LAATEX 11 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at LAALAA 11 − 8
Jul 8, 2025at LAATEX 13 − 1
Jul 7, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 5

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 20at COL5 − 4W
May 19at COL10 − 0W
May 18at COL6 − 7L
May 17at HOU8 − 0W
May 16at HOU1 − 4L
May 15at HOU0 − 2L
May 13vs ARI6 − 5W
May 12vs ARI7 − 4W
May 11vs ARI0 − 1L
May 10vs CHC3 − 0W

LAA · Last 10

1−9 · streak L3
May 21vs ATH2 − 3L
May 20vs ATH5 − 6L
May 19vs ATH6 − 14L
May 18vs ATH2 − 1W
May 17vs LAD1 − 10L
May 16vs LAD2 − 15L
May 15vs LAD0 − 6L
May 13at CLE2 − 4L
May 12at CLE2 − 3L
May 11at CLE2 − 7L