bayesRatings

Rangers at Rockies

MLB · Wednesday, May 20 · 2:10 PM CT · Coors Field · Final TEX 5 – COL 4
← MLB / May 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX0003000025130
COL100120000481
Team box
TEX·COL
13
hits
8
2
home runs
0
2
walks
2
7
strikeouts
11
143
pitches thrown
153
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BurgerTEX2-5111
Ezequiel DuranTEX1-5112
Josh JungTEX3-4101
Tyler FreemanCOL2-4101
TJ RumfieldCOL2-4001
Justin FoscueTEX3-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jack LeiterTEX5.07425
Jacob Latz (W)TEX2.01004
Kyle FreelandCOL4.27324
Brennan Bernardino (L)COL0.12001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: COL 1 · TEX 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 63%, COL 37% · Updated May 20

Expected margin
TEX by 2.0
Expected score
TEX 6.0 – 4.0 COL
Expected total
10.0
RangersThe matchupRockies
−167Our fair odds+167
6.0Expected runs4.0
+0.03Power rating−0.57
3.9Runs / game4.2
3.6Allowed / game5.3
7.7Hits / game8.2
0.92Home runs / game0.90
3.7Walks drawn / game2.9
23−25Season record19−30
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · COL chance
Our model fair62.6%37.4%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−16763%−12655.7%———
COLColorado Rockies+16737%+10548.7%———
SpreadTEX by 2.0
TEXTexas Rangers−2our margin————
COLColorado Rockies+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 2.0 expected
Texas Rangers by 17 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 16 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 15 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 14 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 6%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 10%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 10%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 14%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 7%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 17 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byCOL wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more53%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more43%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXJack Leiter SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 2.95 ERA, 22 Kstarted
COLKyle Freeland SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 13.15 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·COL
May 19 at COL
last game
May 19 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
TEX·COL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.57
3.9
runs / game
4.2
3.6
runs allowed / game
5.3
23−25
season record
19−30
11−10
home record
10−14
12−15
away record
9−16
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
7.7
hits / game
8.2
0.92
home runs / game
0.90
3.7
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.4
0.42
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

TEX · COL · 56 days
Texas RangersColorado Rockies
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 4−6
May 19at COLTEX 10 − 0
May 18at COLCOL 7 − 6
May 14, 2025at TEXTEX 8 − 3
May 13, 2025at TEXTEX 4 − 1
May 12, 2025at TEXTEX 2 − 1
May 12, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 1
May 11, 2024at COLCOL 8 − 3
May 10, 2024at COLCOL 4 − 2
May 21, 2023at TEXTEX 13 − 3
May 20, 2023at TEXTEX 11 − 5

TEX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 19at COL10 − 0W
May 18at COL6 − 7L
May 17at HOU8 − 0W
May 16at HOU1 − 4L
May 15at HOU0 − 2L
May 13vs ARI6 − 5W
May 12vs ARI7 − 4W
May 11vs ARI0 − 1L
May 10vs CHC3 − 0W
May 9vs CHC6 − 0W

COL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
May 19vs TEX0 − 10L
May 18vs TEX7 − 6W
May 17vs ARI6 − 8L
May 16vs ARI4 − 2W
May 15vs ARI1 − 9L
May 14at PIT2 − 7L
May 13at PIT10 − 4W
May 12at PIT1 − 3L
May 10at PHI0 − 6L
May 9at PHI3 − 9L