bayesRatings

Tigers at Orioles

MLB · Sunday, May 24 · 5:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final DET 4 – BAL 1
← MLB / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET200020000470
BAL000100000130
Team box
DET·BAL
7
hits
3
1
home runs
0
3
walks
5
3
strikeouts
9
144
pitches thrown
144
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET1-3112
Kevin McGonigleDET1-4102
Samuel BasalloBAL1-2001
Taylor WardBAL1-4000
Pete AlonsoBAL1-3000
Zack ShortDET1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Troy Melton (W)DET5.22133
Drew Anderson (S)DET2.01024
Trevor Rogers (L)BAL4.24422

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
DET +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 0 · DET 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 50%, BAL 50% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
DET by 0.5
Expected score
DET 4.8 – 4.3 BAL
Expected total
9.1
TigersThe matchupOrioles
−102Our fair odds+102
4.8Expected runs4.3
−0.05Power rating−0.14
3.8Runs / game4.4
4.3Allowed / game5.5
7.8Hits / game7.8
0.87Home runs / game1.10
3.7Walks drawn / game3.8
20−32Season record22−29
1−9Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · BAL chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−10250%————
BALBaltimore Orioles+10250%————
SpreadDET by 0.5
DETDetroit Tigers−0.5our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.5 expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byBAL wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more41%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more31%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTroy Melton SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 1.42 ERA, 11 Kstarted
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 9.1 IP, 15.43 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·BAL
May 24 at BAL
last game
May 24 vs DET
same day
days of rest
same day
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
DET·BAL
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
3.8
runs / game
4.4
4.3
runs allowed / game
5.5
20−32
season record
22−29
13−12
home record
13−12
7−20
away record
9−17
L7
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
4−6
7.8
hits / game
7.8
0.87
home runs / game
1.10
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.54
errors / game
0.57

Rating Trend

DET · BAL · 60 days
Detroit TigersBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 3−7
May 22at BALBAL 7 − 4
Jun 12, 2025at BALDET 4 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at BALBAL 10 − 1
Jun 10, 2025at BALDET 5 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at DETDET 7 − 0
Apr 26, 2025at DETDET 6 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at DETDET 4 − 3
Sep 22, 2024at BALDET 4 − 3
Sep 21, 2024at BALDET 6 − 4
Sep 20, 2024at BALBAL 7 − 1

DET · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
May 22at BAL4 − 7L
May 21vs CLE1 − 3L
May 20vs CLE2 − 3L
May 19vs CLE3 − 4L
May 18vs CLE2 − 8L
May 17vs TOR1 − 4L
May 16vs TOR1 − 2L
May 15vs TOR3 − 2W
May 14at NYM4 − 9L
May 13at NYM2 − 3L

BAL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 22vs DET7 − 4W
May 20at TB3 − 5L
May 19at TB1 − 4L
May 18at TB6 − 16L
May 17at WSH7 − 3W
May 16at WSH3 − 13L
May 15at WSH2 − 3L
May 13vs NYY7 − 0W
May 12vs NYY2 − 6L
May 11vs NYY3 − 2W