bayesRatings

Rangers at Angels

MLB · Sunday, May 24 · 6:20 PM CT · Angel Stadium · Final TEX 1 – LAA 2
← MLB / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TEX010000000131
LAA001000001240
Team box
TEX·LAA
3
hits
4
1
home runs
0
1
walks
2
16
strikeouts
12
150
pitches thrown
123
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake BurgerTEX1-4111
Mike TroutLAA1-4001
Jorge SolerLAA1-4000
Oswald PerazaLAA1-4000
Wade MecklerLAA1-1000
Justin FoscueTEX1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
MacKenzie GoreTEX6.01127
Gavin Collyer (L)TEX0.21001
Reid DetmersLAA8.011014
Sam Bachman (W)LAA1.02012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAA +3
TEX +3
123456789
largest lead: LAA 1 · TEX 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEX 56%, LAA 44% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
TEX by 1.1
Expected score
TEX 5.0 – 3.9 LAA
Expected total
8.9
RangersThe matchupAngels
−129Our fair odds+129
5.0Expected runs3.9
+0.01Power rating−0.32
3.9Runs / game4.1
3.8Allowed / game5.2
7.9Hits / game7.5
0.96Home runs / game1.19
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
24−27Season record19−34
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEX chance · LAA chance
Our model fair56.3%43.7%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TEXTexas Rangers−12956%+10149.7%———
LAALos Angeles Angels+12944%−12154.7%———
SpreadTEX by 1.1
TEXTexas Rangers−1.1our margin————
LAALos Angeles Angels+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Texas Rangers by 1.1 expected
Texas Rangers by 15 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 14 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 13 runs: <1%Texas Rangers by 12 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 11 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 10 runs: 1%Texas Rangers by 9 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 8 runs: 2%Texas Rangers by 7 runs: 3%Texas Rangers by 6 runs: 4%Texas Rangers by 5 runs: 5%Texas Rangers by 4 runs: 7%Texas Rangers by 3 runs: 8%Texas Rangers by 2 runs: 11%Texas Rangers by 1 run: 11%Los Angeles Angels by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Angels by 2 runs: 8%Los Angeles Angels by 3 runs: 6%Los Angeles Angels by 4 runs: 4%Los Angeles Angels by 5 runs: 3%Los Angeles Angels by 6 runs: 2%Los Angeles Angels by 7 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 8 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Angels by 10 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 11 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Angels by 15 runs: <1%
← TEX wins byLAA wins by →
Texas Rangers wins by 2 or more46%
Texas Rangers wins by 3 or more35%
Los Angeles Angels wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TEXMacKenzie Gore SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.02 ERA, 10 Kstarted
LAAReid Detmers SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEX·LAA
May 23 at LAA
last game
May 23 vs TEX
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
10th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 51+ games
TEX·LAA
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.32
3.9
runs / game
4.1
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.2
24−27
season record
19−34
11−10
home record
11−16
13−17
away record
8−18
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.9
hits / game
7.5
0.96
home runs / game
1.19
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.41
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

TEX · LAA · 60 days
Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAA 6−4
May 23at LAALAA 5 − 2
May 22at LAALAA 9 − 6
Aug 27, 2025at TEXTEX 20 − 3
Aug 26, 2025at TEXTEX 7 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at TEXLAA 4 − 0
Jul 30, 2025at LAATEX 6 − 3
Jul 29, 2025at LAALAA 8 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at LAALAA 6 − 4
Jul 10, 2025at LAATEX 11 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at LAALAA 11 − 8

TEX · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 23at LAA2 − 5L
May 22at LAA6 − 9L
May 20at COL5 − 4W
May 19at COL10 − 0W
May 18at COL6 − 7L
May 17at HOU8 − 0W
May 16at HOU1 − 4L
May 15at HOU0 − 2L
May 13vs ARI6 − 5W
May 12vs ARI7 − 4W

LAA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
May 23vs TEX5 − 2W
May 22vs TEX9 − 6W
May 21vs ATH2 − 3L
May 20vs ATH5 − 6L
May 19vs ATH6 − 14L
May 18vs ATH2 − 1W
May 17vs LAD1 − 10L
May 16vs LAD2 − 15L
May 15vs LAD0 − 6L
May 13at CLE2 − 4L