bayesRatings

Twins at Pirates

MLB · Saturday, May 30 · 3:05 PM CT · PNC Park · Final MIN 9 – PIT 10
← MLB / May 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN0115000209121
PIT1600102010150
Team box
MIN·PIT
12
hits
15
0
home runs
3
5
walks
6
10
strikeouts
4
163
pitches thrown
166
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jake MangumPIT3-4212
Oneil CruzPIT1-4113
Kody ClemensMIN3-5102
Nick GonzalesPIT3-5102
Spencer HorwitzPIT2-5211
Josh BellMIN1-5103
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bailey Ober (L)MIN4.212713
Mitch KellerPIT4.010715
Yohan Ramirez (W)PIT1.00001
Gregory Soto (S)PIT1.10010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +6
MIN +6
123456789
largest lead: PIT 6 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 46%, PIT 54% · Updated May 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.5 – 4.1 MIN
Expected total
8.6
TwinsThe matchupPirates
+118Our fair odds−118
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.12Power rating−0.02
4.5Runs / game4.9
4.8Allowed / game4.4
7.8Hits / game8.7
1.07Home runs / game1.09
3.5Walks drawn / game3.8
27−31Season record30−28
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · PIT chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+11846%+12444.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−11854%−14859.7%———
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Twins+0.4our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 8%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more39%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.32 ERA, 11 Kstarted
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 5.71 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·PIT
May 29 at PIT
last game
May 29 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
9th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 58+ games
MIN·PIT
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.5
runs / game
4.9
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
27−31
season record
30−28
15−14
home record
16−15
12−17
away record
14−13
L3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
8.7
1.07
home runs / game
1.09
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.3
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.53
errors / game
0.60

Rating Trend

MIN · PIT · 66 days
Minnesota TwinsPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
May 29at PITPIT 6 − 5
Jul 13, 2025at MINPIT 2 − 1
Jul 12, 2025at MINMIN 12 − 4
Jul 11, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 1
Jun 9, 2024at PITMIN 11 − 5
Jun 8, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 0
Jun 7, 2024at PITPIT 3 − 0
Aug 20, 2023at MINMIN 2 − 0
Aug 19, 2023at MINPIT 7 − 4
Aug 18, 2023at MINMIN 5 − 1

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
May 29at PIT5 − 6L
May 28at CHW2 − 6L
May 27at CHW2 − 15L
May 26at CHW5 − 3W
May 25at CHW1 − 3L
May 24at BOS6 − 5W
May 23at BOS4 − 2W
May 22at BOS8 − 6W
May 20vs HOU4 − 1W
May 19vs HOU1 − 2L

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 29vs MIN6 − 5W
May 28vs CHC2 − 7L
May 27vs CHC4 − 10L
May 26vs CHC12 − 1W
May 25vs CHC2 − 1W
May 24at TOR4 − 1W
May 23at TOR2 − 5L
May 22at TOR2 − 6L
May 21at STL6 − 2W
May 20at STL7 − 0W