bayesRatings

Twins at Red Sox

MLB · Friday, May 22 · 6:10 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final MIN 8 – BOS 6
← MLB / May 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN0300004018102
BOS400200000672
Team box
MIN·BOS
10
hits
7
2
home runs
0
4
walks
5
11
strikeouts
7
155
pitches thrown
158
2
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Byron BuxtonMIN2-5113
Austin MartinMIN2-5112
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-5101
Ryan KreidlerMIN2-5101
Luke KeaschallMIN2-4101
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connor PrielippMIN4.07531
Travis Adams (W)MIN2.00013
Anthony Banda (S)MIN1.10001
Payton TolleBOS6.04329
Justin Slaten (L)BOS0.24411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
MIN +4
123456789
largest lead: BOS 4 · MIN 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 44%, BOS 56% · Updated May 22

Expected margin
BOS by 0.6
Expected score
BOS 4.5 – 3.9 MIN
Expected total
8.3
TwinsThe matchupRed Sox
+126Our fair odds−126
3.9Expected runs4.5
−0.11Power rating+0.05
4.6Runs / game3.7
4.6Allowed / game3.9
7.8Hits / game8.1
1.10Home runs / game0.73
3.7Walks drawn / game3.1
23−27Season record22−27
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · BOS chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12644%+12444.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−12656%−14859.7%———
SpreadBOS by 0.6
MINMinnesota Twins+0.6our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 0.6 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 14%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 11%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more40%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.25 ERA, 18 Kstarted
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·BOS
May 20 vs HOU
last game
May 20 at KC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
MIN·BOS
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.6
runs / game
3.7
4.6
runs allowed / game
3.9
23−27
season record
22−27
15−14
home record
8−14
8−13
away record
14−13
W1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
5−5
7.8
hits / game
8.1
1.10
home runs / game
0.73
3.7
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
7.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.2
0.48
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

MIN · BOS · 58 days
Minnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Apr 15at MINBOS 9 − 5
Apr 14at MINMIN 6 − 0
Apr 13at MINMIN 13 − 6
Jul 30, 2025at MINBOS 13 − 1
Jul 29, 2025at MINBOS 8 − 5
Jul 28, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 4
May 4, 2025at BOSMIN 5 − 4
May 3, 2025at BOSMIN 4 − 3
May 2, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 1
Sep 22, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 3

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 20vs HOU4 − 1W
May 19vs HOU1 − 2L
May 18vs HOU6 − 3W
May 17vs MIL5 − 4W
May 16vs MIL1 − 2L
May 15vs MIL2 − 3L
May 14vs MIA9 − 1W
May 13vs MIA5 − 9L
May 12vs MIA3 − 0W
May 10at CLE5 − 4W

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
May 20at KC4 − 3W
May 19at KC7 − 1W
May 18at KC3 − 1W
May 17at ATL1 − 8L
May 16at ATL3 − 2W
May 15at ATL2 − 3L
May 14vs PHI1 − 3L
May 13vs PHI3 − 1W
May 12vs PHI1 − 2L
May 10vs TB1 − 4L