bayesRatings

Astros at Twins

MLB · Tuesday, May 19 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final HOU 2 – MIN 1
← MLB / May 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU200000000251
MIN000000010170
Team box
HOU·MIN
5
hits
7
1
home runs
0
0
walks
1
7
strikeouts
8
140
pitches thrown
135
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Isaac ParedesHOU1-4112
Jeremy PenaHOU2-4100
Josh BellMIN2-4000
Byron BuxtonMIN2-5100
Jake MeyersHOU1-3000
Zach DezenzoHOU1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jason Alexander (W)HOU6.04014
Bryan Abreu (S)HOU0.10000
Zebby Matthews (L)MIN6.05206

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 0 · HOU 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 48%, MIN 52% · Updated May 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 4.7 – 4.7 HOU
Expected total
9.4
AstrosThe matchupTwins
+109Our fair odds−109
4.7Expected runs4.7
−0.11Power rating−0.11
4.4Runs / game4.7
5.5Allowed / game4.8
8.4Hits / game7.9
1.20Home runs / game1.10
3.5Walks drawn / game3.8
19−30Season record22−26
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · MIN chance
Our model fair47.8%52.2%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10948%+11945.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10952%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston AstrosPKour margin————
MINMinnesota TwinsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more36%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more27%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUJason Alexander RP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 8.44 ERA, 10 Kstarted
MINZebby Matthews SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 5.29 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·MIN
May 18 at MIN
last game
May 18 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
HOU·MIN
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
4.4
runs / game
4.7
5.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
19−30
season record
22−26
12−14
home record
14−13
7−16
away record
8−13
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.4
hits / game
7.9
1.20
home runs / game
1.10
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.8
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.35
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

HOU · MIN · 55 days
Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
May 18at MINMIN 6 − 3
Jun 15, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
Jun 14, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2025at HOUHOU 10 − 3
Apr 6, 2025at MINHOU 9 − 7
Apr 5, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 1
Apr 3, 2025at MINHOU 5 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at MINMIN 3 − 2
Jul 6, 2024at MINMIN 9 − 3
Jul 5, 2024at MINHOU 13 − 12

HOU · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 18at MIN3 − 6L
May 17vs TEX0 − 8L
May 16vs TEX4 − 1W
May 15vs TEX2 − 0W
May 14vs SEA3 − 8L
May 13vs SEA4 − 3W
May 12vs SEA2 − 10L
May 11vs SEA1 − 3L
May 10at CIN0 − 5L
May 9at CIN1 − 3L

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 18vs HOU6 − 3W
May 17vs MIL5 − 4W
May 16vs MIL1 − 2L
May 15vs MIL2 − 3L
May 14vs MIA9 − 1W
May 13vs MIA5 − 9L
May 12vs MIA3 − 0W
May 10at CLE5 − 4W
May 9at CLE2 − 1W
May 8at CLE4 − 6L