bayesRatings

Brewers at Twins

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 6:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final MIL 2 – MIN 1
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL000101000250
MIN001000000171
Team box
MIL·MIN
5
hits
7
1
home runs
1
3
walks
1
9
strikeouts
10
136
pitches thrown
123
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jackson ChourioMIL2-4111
Trevor LarnachMIN1-4111
Kody ClemensMIN2-4000
William ContrerasMIL1-4000
Brice TurangMIL1-4100
Andrew VaughnMIL1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Logan Henderson (W)MIL5.06117
Chad Patrick (S)MIL4.01003
Connor Prielipp (L)MIN6.03128

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 1 · MIL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 58%, MIN 42% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
MIL by 1.4
Expected score
MIL 5.5 – 4.0 MIN
Expected total
9.5
BrewersThe matchupTwins
−139Our fair odds+139
5.5Expected runs4.0
+0.30Power rating−0.13
5.0Runs / game4.7
3.6Allowed / game4.9
8.2Hits / game7.9
0.64Home runs / game1.09
4.4Walks drawn / game3.9
25−17Season record20−25
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair58.1%41.9%
Kalshi56.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13958%−13156.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+13942%+11446.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.4
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.4our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.4 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 8%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 16 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byMIN wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more49%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more38%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILLogan Henderson SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 4.15 ERA, 16 Kstarted
MINConnor Prielipp SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·MIN
May 15 at MIN
last game
May 15 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
MIL·MIN
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
5.0
runs / game
4.7
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.9
25−17
season record
20−25
15−9
home record
12−12
10−8
away record
8−13
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.2
hits / game
7.9
0.64
home runs / game
1.09
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.45
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

MIL · MIN · 52 days
Milwaukee BrewersMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 3−7
May 15at MINMIL 3 − 2
Jun 22, 2025at MINMIL 9 − 8
Jun 21, 2025at MINMIL 9 − 0
Jun 20, 2025at MINMIL 17 − 6
May 18, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 2
May 17, 2025at MILMIN 7 − 0
May 16, 2025at MILMIN 3 − 0
Jul 21, 2024at MINMIL 8 − 7
Jul 20, 2024at MINMIL 8 − 4
Apr 3, 2024at MILMIN 7 − 3

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 15at MIN3 − 2W
May 14vs SD7 − 1W
May 13vs SD1 − 3L
May 12vs SD6 − 4W
May 10vs NYY4 − 3W
May 9vs NYY4 − 3W
May 8vs NYY6 − 0W
May 6at STL6 − 2W
May 4at STL3 − 6L
May 3at WSH2 − 3L

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 15vs MIL2 − 3L
May 14vs MIA9 − 1W
May 13vs MIA5 − 9L
May 12vs MIA3 − 0W
May 10at CLE5 − 4W
May 9at CLE2 − 1W
May 8at CLE4 − 6L
May 7at WSH5 − 7L
May 6at WSH2 − 15L
May 5at WSH11 − 3W