bayesRatings

Padres at Brewers

MLB · Thursday, May 14 · 12:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final SD 1 – MIL 7
← MLB / May 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000000001172
MIL330100007101
Team box
SD·MIL
7
hits
10
0
home runs
0
3
walks
7
10
strikeouts
11
169
pitches thrown
168
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis RengifoMIL2-4003
Andrew VaughnMIL2-3102
Gary SanchezMIL1-4201
Brice TurangMIL1-2201
Garrett MitchellMIL2-4000
Nick CastellanosSD2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Griffin Canning (L)SD1.25642
Kyle Harrison (W)MIL5.05007

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +7
SD +7
123456789
largest lead: MIL 7 · SD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 44%, MIL 56% · Updated May 14

Expected margin
MIL by 0.9
Expected score
MIL 4.6 – 3.7 SD
Expected total
8.3
PadresThe matchupBrewers
+129Our fair odds−129
3.7Expected runs4.6
+0.10Power rating+0.27
4.2Runs / game5.0
4.1Allowed / game3.7
7.3Hits / game8.2
0.98Home runs / game0.68
3.2Walks drawn / game4.4
25−17Season record23−17
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · MIL chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+12944%+11446.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−12956%−14258.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.9
SDSan Diego Padres+0.9our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.9 expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more44%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more33%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDGriffin Canning RP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 5.25 ERA, 15 Kstarted
MILKyle Harrison SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·MIL
May 13 at MIL
last game
May 13 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
SD·MIL
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
4.2
runs / game
5.0
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.7
25−17
season record
23−17
13−10
home record
14−9
12−7
away record
9−8
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
7−3
7.3
hits / game
8.2
0.98
home runs / game
0.68
3.2
walks drawn / game
4.4
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.8
0.24
errors / game
0.42

Rating Trend

SD · MIL · 50 days
San Diego PadresMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 4−6
May 13at MILSD 3 − 1
May 12at MILMIL 6 − 4
Sep 24, 2025at SDMIL 3 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at SDSD 7 − 0
Sep 22, 2025at SDSD 5 − 4
Jun 8, 2025at MILSD 1 − 0
Jun 7, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 3
Jun 6, 2025at MILSD 2 − 0
Jun 23, 2024at SDMIL 6 − 2
Jun 22, 2024at SDSD 6 − 4

SD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 13at MIL3 − 1W
May 12at MIL4 − 6L
May 10vs STL3 − 2W
May 9vs STL4 − 2W
May 8vs STL0 − 6L
May 7vs STL1 − 2L
May 6at SF5 − 1W
May 5at SF10 − 5W
May 4at SF2 − 3L
May 3vs CHW4 − 3W

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 13vs SD1 − 3L
May 12vs SD6 − 4W
May 10vs NYY4 − 3W
May 9vs NYY4 − 3W
May 8vs NYY6 − 0W
May 6at STL6 − 2W
May 4at STL3 − 6L
May 3at WSH2 − 3L
May 2at WSH4 − 1W
May 1at WSH6 − 1W