bayesRatings

Padres at Brewers

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 6:40 PM CT · American Family Field · Final SD 4 – MIL 6
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000201010480
MIL001500006110
Team box
SD·MIL
8
hits
11
1
home runs
1
3
walks
2
13
strikeouts
9
129
pitches thrown
142
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Joey OrtizMIL2-3112
Miguel AndujarSD2-4112
Brice TurangMIL2-4002
Sal FrelickMIL1-4102
Nick CastellanosSD1-4002
Jake BauersMIL2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bradgley RodriguezSD1.00001
Matt Waldron (L)SD2.28623
Brandon Sproat (W)MIL5.16326
Abner Uribe (S)MIL1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIL +4
SD +4
123456789
largest lead: MIL 4 · SD 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 44%, MIL 56% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
MIL by 0.9
Expected score
MIL 4.7 – 3.8 SD
Expected total
8.4
PadresThe matchupBrewers
+130Our fair odds−130
3.8Expected runs4.7
+0.10Power rating+0.27
4.2Runs / game5.1
4.2Allowed / game3.7
7.3Hits / game8.1
0.97Home runs / game0.68
3.3Walks drawn / game4.6
24−16Season record22−16
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · MIL chance
Our model fair43.6%56.4%
Kalshi45.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+13044%+11945.7%———
MILMilwaukee Brewers−13056%−14859.7%———
SpreadMIL by 0.9
SDSan Diego Padres+0.9our margin————
MILMilwaukee Brewers−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 0.9 expected
San Diego Padres by 14 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 13%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 11%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 5%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%
← SD wins byMIL wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more44%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more33%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDBradgley Rodriguez RP · last 1 start: 1.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0 Kstarted
MILBrandon Sproat SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 4.61 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·MIL
May 10 vs STL
last game
May 10 vs NYY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
SD·MIL
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
4.2
runs / game
5.1
4.2
runs allowed / game
3.7
24−16
season record
22−16
13−10
home record
13−8
11−6
away record
9−8
W2
streak
W4
5−5
last 10
7−3
7.3
hits / game
8.1
0.97
home runs / game
0.68
3.3
walks drawn / game
4.6
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.25
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

SD · MIL · 48 days
San Diego PadresMilwaukee Brewers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIL 3−7
Sep 24, 2025at SDMIL 3 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at SDSD 7 − 0
Sep 22, 2025at SDSD 5 − 4
Jun 8, 2025at MILSD 1 − 0
Jun 7, 2025at MILMIL 4 − 3
Jun 6, 2025at MILSD 2 − 0
Jun 23, 2024at SDMIL 6 − 2
Jun 22, 2024at SDSD 6 − 4
Jun 21, 2024at SDSD 9 − 5
Jun 20, 2024at SDSD 7 − 6

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 10vs STL3 − 2W
May 9vs STL4 − 2W
May 8vs STL0 − 6L
May 7vs STL1 − 2L
May 6at SF5 − 1W
May 5at SF10 − 5W
May 4at SF2 − 3L
May 3vs CHW4 − 3W
May 2vs CHW0 − 4L
May 1vs CHW2 − 8L

MIL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
May 10vs NYY4 − 3W
May 9vs NYY4 − 3W
May 8vs NYY6 − 0W
May 6at STL6 − 2W
May 4at STL3 − 6L
May 3at WSH2 − 3L
May 2at WSH4 − 1W
May 1at WSH6 − 1W
Apr 30vs ARI13 − 1W
Apr 29vs ARI2 − 6L