bayesRatings

Astros at Twins

MLB · Monday, May 18 · 6:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final HOU 3 – MIN 6
← MLB / May 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU000000300370
MIN01020300690
Team box
HOU·MIN
7
hits
9
0
home runs
2
6
walks
3
6
strikeouts
6
131
pitches thrown
152
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Josh BellMIN3-4224
Christian WalkerHOU2-5001
Luke KeaschallMIN1-4002
Christian VazquezHOU1-2101
Yordan AlvarezHOU1-3000
Isaac ParedesHOU1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tatsuya Imai (L)HOU4.25305
Kendry RojasMIN4.02013
Eric Orze (W)MIN1.10001
Taylor Rogers (S)MIN0.20001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +6
HOU +6
123456789
largest lead: MIN 6 · HOU 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 48%, MIN 52% · Updated May 18

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
HOU 4.8 – 4.7 MIN
Expected total
9.5
AstrosThe matchupTwins
+106Our fair odds−106
4.8Expected runs4.7
−0.10Power rating−0.12
4.4Runs / game4.7
5.5Allowed / game4.8
8.4Hits / game7.8
1.23Home runs / game1.09
3.4Walks drawn / game3.8
19−29Season record21−26
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · MIN chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10648%−10350.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10652%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston Astros−0.1our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 11%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 16%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byMIN wins by →
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more38%
Houston Astros wins by 3 or more28%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUTatsuya Imai SP · last 3 starts: 10.0 IP, 8.10 ERA, 12 Kstarted
MINKendry Rojas RP · no recent starts on recordstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·MIN
May 17 vs TEX
last game
May 17 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
HOU·MIN
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.4
runs / game
4.7
5.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
19−29
season record
21−26
12−14
home record
13−13
7−15
away record
8−13
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.4
hits / game
7.8
1.23
home runs / game
1.09
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.35
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

HOU · MIN · 54 days
Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
Jun 15, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
Jun 14, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2025at HOUHOU 10 − 3
Apr 6, 2025at MINHOU 9 − 7
Apr 5, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 1
Apr 3, 2025at MINHOU 5 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at MINMIN 3 − 2
Jul 6, 2024at MINMIN 9 − 3
Jul 5, 2024at MINHOU 13 − 12
Jun 2, 2024at HOUMIN 4 − 3

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 17vs TEX0 − 8L
May 16vs TEX4 − 1W
May 15vs TEX2 − 0W
May 14vs SEA3 − 8L
May 13vs SEA4 − 3W
May 12vs SEA2 − 10L
May 11vs SEA1 − 3L
May 10at CIN0 − 5L
May 9at CIN1 − 3L
May 8at CIN10 − 0W

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 17vs MIL5 − 4W
May 16vs MIL1 − 2L
May 15vs MIL2 − 3L
May 14vs MIA9 − 1W
May 13vs MIA5 − 9L
May 12vs MIA3 − 0W
May 10at CLE5 − 4W
May 9at CLE2 − 1W
May 8at CLE4 − 6L
May 7at WSH5 − 7L