bayesRatings

Brewers at Twins

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 1:10 PM CT · Target Field · Final MIL 4 – MIN 5
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIL0101100014101
MIN10201001560
Team box
MIL·MIN
10
hits
6
2
home runs
1
5
walks
3
5
strikeouts
8
148
pitches thrown
148
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan JeffersMIN2-3211
Kody ClemensMIN2-4102
Christian YelichMIL1-5111
Garrett MitchellMIL1-3111
Jake BauersMIL2-4101
Sal FrelickMIL2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Robert GasserMIL4.03223
Grant Anderson (L)MIL1.22102
Bailey Ober (W)MIN5.06321
Luis Garcia (S)MIN1.02111

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
MIL +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 2 · MIL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 58%, MIN 42% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
MIL by 1.4
Expected score
MIL 5.4 – 4.0 MIN
Expected total
9.4
BrewersThe matchupTwins
−141Our fair odds+141
5.4Expected runs4.0
+0.30Power rating−0.13
5.0Runs / game4.7
3.5Allowed / game4.8
8.1Hits / game7.9
0.65Home runs / game1.09
4.4Walks drawn / game3.8
26−17Season record20−26
8−2Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair58.4%41.6%
Kalshi58.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Brewers−14158%−14258.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins+14142%+11446.7%———
SpreadMIL by 1.4
MILMilwaukee Brewers−1.4our margin————
MINMinnesota Twins+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.4
Over9.4our total————
Under9.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Milwaukee Brewers by 1.4 expected
Milwaukee Brewers by 16 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 15 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 14 runs: <1%Milwaukee Brewers by 13 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 12 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 11 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 10 runs: 1%Milwaukee Brewers by 9 runs: 2%Milwaukee Brewers by 8 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 7 runs: 3%Milwaukee Brewers by 6 runs: 4%Milwaukee Brewers by 5 runs: 6%Milwaukee Brewers by 4 runs: 7%Milwaukee Brewers by 3 runs: 8%Milwaukee Brewers by 2 runs: 10%Milwaukee Brewers by 1 run: 10%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 8%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 14 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 15 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 16 runs: <1%
← MIL wins byMIN wins by →
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 2 or more49%
Milwaukee Brewers wins by 3 or more38%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.4 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.561%
Total over 9.543%
Total over 11.528%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MILRobert Gasser SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 4.22 ERA, 8 Kstarted
MINBailey Ober SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 2.70 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·MIN
May 16 at MIN
last game
May 16 vs MIL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
MIL·MIN
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
5.0
runs / game
4.7
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
26−17
season record
20−26
15−9
home record
12−13
11−8
away record
8−13
W3
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
7.9
0.65
home runs / game
1.09
4.4
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.44
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

MIL · MIN · 53 days
Milwaukee BrewersMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 2−8
May 16at MINMIL 2 − 1
May 15at MINMIL 3 − 2
Jun 22, 2025at MINMIL 9 − 8
Jun 21, 2025at MINMIL 9 − 0
Jun 20, 2025at MINMIL 17 − 6
May 18, 2025at MILMIL 5 − 2
May 17, 2025at MILMIN 7 − 0
May 16, 2025at MILMIN 3 − 0
Jul 21, 2024at MINMIL 8 − 7
Jul 20, 2024at MINMIL 8 − 4

MIL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
May 16at MIN2 − 1W
May 15at MIN3 − 2W
May 14vs SD7 − 1W
May 13vs SD1 − 3L
May 12vs SD6 − 4W
May 10vs NYY4 − 3W
May 9vs NYY4 − 3W
May 8vs NYY6 − 0W
May 6at STL6 − 2W
May 4at STL3 − 6L

MIN · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 16vs MIL1 − 2L
May 15vs MIL2 − 3L
May 14vs MIA9 − 1W
May 13vs MIA5 − 9L
May 12vs MIA3 − 0W
May 10at CLE5 − 4W
May 9at CLE2 − 1W
May 8at CLE4 − 6L
May 7at WSH5 − 7L
May 6at WSH2 − 15L