bayesRatings

Red Sox at Braves

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final BOS 2 – ATL 3
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
BOS0000011000271
ATL1001000001370
Team box
BOS·ATL
7
hits
7
1
home runs
2
4
walks
0
9
strikeouts
11
135
pitches thrown
160
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drake BaldwinATL2-4111
Michael Harris IIATL1-4111
Marcelo MayerBOS1-3111
Mickey GasperBOS2-5001
Mike YastrzemskiATL1-2001
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Connelly EarlyBOS5.05206
Tyler Samaniego (L)BOS0.01000
Spencer StriderATL5.13134
Didier Fuentes (W)ATL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
BOS +3
12345678910
largest lead: ATL 2 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 44%, ATL 56% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 3.9 BOS
Expected total
8.6
Red SoxThe matchupBraves
+128Our fair odds−128
3.9Expected runs4.7
+0.04Power rating+0.19
3.7Runs / game5.4
4.0Allowed / game3.3
7.8Hits / game9.2
0.72Home runs / game1.39
3.1Walks drawn / game3.0
18−25Season record30−14
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · ATL chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+12844%+12444.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12856%−14859.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSConnelly Early SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ATLSpencer Strider SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 3.52 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·ATL
May 14 vs PHI
last game
May 14 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
BOS·ATL
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
3.7
runs / game
5.4
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.3
18−25
season record
30−14
8−14
home record
14−7
10−11
away record
16−7
L1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
9.2
0.72
home runs / game
1.39
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.47
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

BOS · ATL · 51 days
Boston Red SoxAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
Jun 1, 2025at ATLBOS 3 − 1
May 31, 2025at ATLATL 5 − 0
May 30, 2025at ATLBOS 5 − 1
May 18, 2025at BOSATL 10 − 4
May 17, 2025at BOSBOS 7 − 6
May 16, 2025at BOSATL 4 − 2
Jun 5, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 0
Jun 4, 2024at BOSATL 8 − 3
May 8, 2024at ATLATL 5 − 0
May 7, 2024at ATLATL 4 − 2

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 14vs PHI1 − 3L
May 13vs PHI3 − 1W
May 12vs PHI1 − 2L
May 10vs TB1 − 4L
May 8vs TB2 − 0W
May 7vs TB4 − 8L
May 6at DET4 − 0W
May 5at DET10 − 3W
May 4at DET5 − 4W
May 3vs HOU1 − 3L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 14vs CHC0 − 2L
May 13vs CHC4 − 1W
May 12vs CHC5 − 2W
May 10at LAD7 − 2W
May 9at LAD7 − 2W
May 8at LAD1 − 3L
May 6at SEA1 − 3L
May 5at SEA3 − 2W
May 4at SEA4 − 5L
May 3at COL11 − 6W