bayesRatings

Cubs at Braves

MLB · Thursday, May 14 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final CHC 2 – ATL 0
← MLB / May 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000001010260
ATL000000000051
Team box
CHC·ATL
6
hits
5
1
home runs
0
3
walks
1
10
strikeouts
13
136
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ian HappCHC2-3211
Matt OlsonATL1-4000
Dominic SmithATL1-4000
Austin RileyATL1-3000
Michael Harris IIATL1-4000
Drake BaldwinATL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ben BrownCHC4.01017
Hoby Milner (W)CHC2.01001
Daniel Palencia (S)CHC1.01002
Chris Sale (L)ATL6.05028

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
CHC +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 0 · CHC 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 48%, ATL 52% · Updated May 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.5 – 4.5 CHC
Expected total
9.0
CubsThe matchupBraves
+107Our fair odds−107
4.5Expected runs4.5
+0.22Power rating+0.20
5.1Runs / game5.5
4.1Allowed / game3.3
8.3Hits / game9.3
1.21Home runs / game1.42
4.7Walks drawn / game3.0
27−16Season record30−13
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · ATL chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshi38.6%66.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+10748%+15938.6%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−10752%−19966.6%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago Cubs+0.1our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more37%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more27%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCBen Brown RP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 10 Kstarted
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 27 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·ATL
May 13 at ATL
last game
May 13 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
CHC·ATL
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
5.1
runs / game
5.5
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.3
27−16
season record
30−13
18−5
home record
14−6
9−11
away record
16−7
L4
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
7−3
8.3
hits / game
9.3
1.21
home runs / game
1.42
4.7
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.47
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

CHC · ATL · 50 days
Chicago CubsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
May 13at ATLATL 4 − 1
May 12at ATLATL 5 − 2
Sep 10, 2025at ATLCHC 3 − 2
Sep 9, 2025at ATLCHC 6 − 1
Sep 8, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Sep 3, 2025at CHCATL 5 − 1
Sep 2, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 6
May 23, 2024at CHCATL 3 − 0
May 22, 2024at CHCATL 9 − 2

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L4
May 13at ATL1 − 4L
May 12at ATL2 − 5L
May 10at TEX0 − 3L
May 9at TEX0 − 6L
May 8at TEX7 − 1W
May 7vs CIN8 − 3W
May 6vs CIN7 − 6W
May 5vs CIN3 − 2W
May 4vs CIN5 − 4W
May 3vs ARI8 − 4W

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
May 13vs CHC4 − 1W
May 12vs CHC5 − 2W
May 10at LAD7 − 2W
May 9at LAD7 − 2W
May 8at LAD1 − 3L
May 6at SEA1 − 3L
May 5at SEA3 − 2W
May 4at SEA4 − 5L
May 3at COL11 − 6W
May 2at COL9 − 1W