bayesRatings

Cubs at Braves

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final CHC 2 – ATL 5
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CHC000200000210
ATL001040005110
Team box
CHC·ATL
1
hits
11
1
home runs
2
5
walks
2
9
strikeouts
5
135
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mike YastrzemskiATL2-2113
Austin RileyATL2-4111
Dominic SmithATL4-4200
Alex BregmanCHC1-4111
Matt OlsonATL1-4001
Michael Harris IIATL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Colin Rea (L)CHC4.17511
Grant HolmesATL4.01245
Didier Fuentes (W)ATL3.00013
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
CHC +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 3 · CHC 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHC 50%, ATL 50% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ATL 4.5 – 4.5 CHC
Expected total
9.1
CubsThe matchupBraves
+101Our fair odds−101
4.5Expected runs4.5
+0.25Power rating+0.18
5.2Runs / game5.6
4.1Allowed / game3.4
8.6Hits / game9.3
1.24Home runs / game1.39
4.7Walks drawn / game3.1
27−14Season record28−13
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHC chance · ATL chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHCChicago Cubs+10150%+10548.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−10150%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
CHCChicago CubsPKour margin————
ATLAtlanta BravesPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 10%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 13%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 7%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← CHC wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more36%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more27%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CHCColin Rea SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.79 ERA, 15 Kstarted
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHC·ATL
May 10 at TEX
last game
May 10 at LAD
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
CHC·ATL
+0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
5.2
runs / game
5.6
4.1
runs allowed / game
3.4
27−14
season record
28−13
18−5
home record
12−6
9−9
away record
16−7
L2
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
9.3
1.24
home runs / game
1.39
4.7
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.49
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

CHC · ATL · 48 days
Chicago CubsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 4−6
Sep 10, 2025at ATLCHC 3 − 2
Sep 9, 2025at ATLCHC 6 − 1
Sep 8, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 1
Sep 3, 2025at CHCATL 5 − 1
Sep 2, 2025at CHCCHC 4 − 3
Sep 1, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 6
May 23, 2024at CHCATL 3 − 0
May 22, 2024at CHCATL 9 − 2
May 21, 2024at CHCCHC 4 − 3
May 15, 2024at ATLCHC 7 − 1

CHC · Last 10

8−2 · streak L2
May 10at TEX0 − 3L
May 9at TEX0 − 6L
May 8at TEX7 − 1W
May 7vs CIN8 − 3W
May 6vs CIN7 − 6W
May 5vs CIN3 − 2W
May 4vs CIN5 − 4W
May 3vs ARI8 − 4W
May 2vs ARI2 − 0W
May 1vs ARI6 − 5W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 10at LAD7 − 2W
May 9at LAD7 − 2W
May 8at LAD1 − 3L
May 6at SEA1 − 3L
May 5at SEA3 − 2W
May 4at SEA4 − 5L
May 3at COL11 − 6W
May 2at COL9 − 1W
May 1at COL8 − 6W
Apr 30vs DET2 − 5L