bayesRatings

Phillies at Red Sox

MLB · Wednesday, May 13 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final PHI 1 – BOS 3
← MLB / May 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI001000000130
BOS01000200380
Team box
PHI·BOS
3
hits
8
1
home runs
2
3
walks
0
10
strikeouts
8
112
pitches thrown
125
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Trevor StoryBOS2-3111
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-1112
Justin CrawfordPHI1-3111
Wilyer AbreuBOS3-4100
Marcelo MayerBOS1-3000
Mickey GasperBOS1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Andrew PainterPHI5.04104
Tanner Banks (L)PHI0.21101
Sonny Gray (W)BOS6.02116
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00023

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 2 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 49%, BOS 51% · Updated May 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.2 – 4.2 PHI
Expected total
8.4
PhilliesThe matchupRed Sox
+106Our fair odds−106
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.07Power rating+0.04
4.1Runs / game3.8
4.8Allowed / game4.1
8.0Hits / game7.9
1.19Home runs / game0.71
3.0Walks drawn / game3.2
20−22Season record17−24
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · BOS chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+10649%+10548.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−10651%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.1our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more26%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAndrew Painter SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 10.05 ERA, 10 Kstarted
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 4.63 ERA, 5 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·BOS
May 12 at BOS
last game
May 12 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
PHI·BOS
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.1
runs / game
3.8
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.1
20−22
season record
17−24
12−12
home record
7−13
8−10
away record
10−11
W3
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.9
1.19
home runs / game
0.71
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.48
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

PHI · BOS · 49 days
Philadelphia PhilliesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
May 12at BOSPHI 2 − 1
Jul 23, 2025at PHIBOS 9 − 8
Jul 22, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 1
Jul 21, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 3
Jun 12, 2024at BOSBOS 8 − 6
Jun 11, 2024at BOSPHI 4 − 1
May 7, 2023at PHIPHI 6 − 1
May 6, 2023at PHIBOS 7 − 4
May 5, 2023at PHIBOS 5 − 3

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
May 12at BOS2 − 1W
May 10vs COL6 − 0W
May 9vs COL9 − 3W
May 8vs COL7 − 9L
May 7vs ATH1 − 12L
May 6vs ATH6 − 3W
May 5vs ATH9 − 1W
May 4at MIA1 − 0W
May 3at MIA7 − 2W
May 2at MIA0 − 4L

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 12vs PHI1 − 2L
May 10vs TB1 − 4L
May 8vs TB2 − 0W
May 7vs TB4 − 8L
May 6at DET4 − 0W
May 5at DET10 − 3W
May 4at DET5 − 4W
May 3vs HOU1 − 3L
May 2vs HOU3 − 6L
May 1vs HOU3 − 1W