bayesRatings

Phillies at Red Sox

MLB · Tuesday, May 12 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final PHI 2 – BOS 1
← MLB / May 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI110000000251
BOS000000100170
Team box
PHI·BOS
5
hits
7
1
home runs
0
2
walks
1
9
strikeouts
7
114
pitches thrown
136
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-3111
Bryson StottPHI2-4001
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-4001
Trevor StoryBOS1-3000
Masataka YoshidaBOS1-3000
Marcelo MayerBOS1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI7.16104
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.01012
Jovani Moran (L)BOS1.01102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · PHI 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 48%, BOS 52% · Updated May 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.3 – 4.2 PHI
Expected total
8.5
PhilliesThe matchupRed Sox
+107Our fair odds−107
4.2Expected runs4.3
+0.06Power rating+0.05
4.1Runs / game3.9
4.9Allowed / game4.2
8.1Hits / game7.9
1.20Home runs / game0.72
3.0Walks drawn / game3.3
19−22Season record17−23
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · BOS chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshi57.7%46.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+10748%−13757.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−10752%+11446.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.1our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 13%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 16%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more36%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more26%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 18 Kstarted
BOSJovani Moran RP · last 1 start: 1.0 IP, 18.00 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·BOS
May 10 vs COL
last game
May 10 vs TB
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 40+ games
PHI·BOS
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.1
runs / game
3.9
4.9
runs allowed / game
4.2
19−22
season record
17−23
12−12
home record
7−12
7−10
away record
10−11
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
7.9
1.20
home runs / game
0.72
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.46
errors / game
0.47

Rating Trend

PHI · BOS · 48 days
Philadelphia PhilliesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Jul 23, 2025at PHIBOS 9 − 8
Jul 22, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 1
Jul 21, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 3
Jun 12, 2024at BOSBOS 8 − 6
Jun 11, 2024at BOSPHI 4 − 1
May 7, 2023at PHIPHI 6 − 1
May 6, 2023at PHIBOS 7 − 4
May 5, 2023at PHIBOS 5 − 3
Jul 11, 2021at BOSPHI 5 − 4

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
May 10vs COL6 − 0W
May 9vs COL9 − 3W
May 8vs COL7 − 9L
May 7vs ATH1 − 12L
May 6vs ATH6 − 3W
May 5vs ATH9 − 1W
May 4at MIA1 − 0W
May 3at MIA7 − 2W
May 2at MIA0 − 4L
May 1at MIA6 − 5W

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 10vs TB1 − 4L
May 8vs TB2 − 0W
May 7vs TB4 − 8L
May 6at DET4 − 0W
May 5at DET10 − 3W
May 4at DET5 − 4W
May 3vs HOU1 − 3L
May 2vs HOU3 − 6L
May 1vs HOU3 − 1W
Apr 29at TOR1 − 8L