bayesRatings

Phillies at Red Sox

MLB · Thursday, May 14 · 5:45 PM CT · Fenway Park · Final PHI 3 – BOS 1
← MLB / May 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000000030390
BOS000000010171
Team box
PHI·BOS
9
hits
7
1
home runs
0
1
walks
2
14
strikeouts
10
145
pitches thrown
139
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle SchwarberPHI1-5112
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-4001
Andruw MonasterioBOS2-4100
Alec BohmPHI2-4100
Bryson StottPHI1-2001
Willson ContrerasBOS1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesus LuzardoPHI6.04014
Brad Keller (W)PHI1.01002
Jhoan Duran (S)PHI1.00013
Ranger SuarezBOS5.14018
Tyler Samaniego (L)BOS0.12200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: BOS 0 · PHI 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 48%, BOS 52% · Updated May 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 4.2 – 4.1 PHI
Expected total
8.3
PhilliesThe matchupRed Sox
+108Our fair odds−108
4.1Expected runs4.2
+0.06Power rating+0.04
4.0Runs / game3.8
4.8Allowed / game4.1
7.9Hits / game7.9
1.19Home runs / game0.74
3.0Walks drawn / game3.2
20−23Season record18−24
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · BOS chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+10848%+10149.7%———
BOSBoston Red Sox−10852%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.2our margin————
BOSBoston Red Sox−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more37%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more27%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 24 Kstarted
BOSRanger Suarez SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·BOS
May 13 at BOS
last game
May 13 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 42+ games
PHI·BOS
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.0
runs / game
3.8
4.8
runs allowed / game
4.1
20−23
season record
18−24
12−12
home record
8−13
8−11
away record
10−11
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
7.9
1.19
home runs / game
0.74
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.47
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

PHI · BOS · 50 days
Philadelphia PhilliesBoston Red Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
May 13at BOSBOS 3 − 1
May 12at BOSPHI 2 − 1
Jul 23, 2025at PHIBOS 9 − 8
Jul 22, 2025at PHIPHI 4 − 1
Jul 21, 2025at PHIPHI 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 3
Jun 12, 2024at BOSBOS 8 − 6
Jun 11, 2024at BOSPHI 4 − 1
May 7, 2023at PHIPHI 6 − 1
May 6, 2023at PHIBOS 7 − 4

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
May 13at BOS1 − 3L
May 12at BOS2 − 1W
May 10vs COL6 − 0W
May 9vs COL9 − 3W
May 8vs COL7 − 9L
May 7vs ATH1 − 12L
May 6vs ATH6 − 3W
May 5vs ATH9 − 1W
May 4at MIA1 − 0W
May 3at MIA7 − 2W

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 13vs PHI3 − 1W
May 12vs PHI1 − 2L
May 10vs TB1 − 4L
May 8vs TB2 − 0W
May 7vs TB4 − 8L
May 6at DET4 − 0W
May 5at DET10 − 3W
May 4at DET5 − 4W
May 3vs HOU1 − 3L
May 2vs HOU3 − 6L