bayesRatings

Red Sox at Braves

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 12:35 PM CT · Truist Park · Final BOS 1 – ATL 8
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000000001190
ATL32011001880
Team box
BOS·ATL
9
hits
8
0
home runs
2
1
walks
6
7
strikeouts
5
146
pitches thrown
128
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Austin RileyATL2-4213
Mike YastrzemskiATL2-3211
Dominic SmithATL1-4001
Drake BaldwinATL0-2002
Jarren DuranBOS2-5000
Nick SogardBOS1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brayan Bello (L)BOS5.08731
Grant Holmes (W)ATL6.05014

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +8
BOS +8
123456789
largest lead: ATL 8 · BOS 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 44%, ATL 56% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 4.5 – 3.9 BOS
Expected total
8.4
Red SoxThe matchupBraves
+127Our fair odds−127
3.9Expected runs4.5
+0.04Power rating+0.19
3.7Runs / game5.3
4.0Allowed / game3.3
7.8Hits / game9.1
0.73Home runs / game1.39
3.1Walks drawn / game2.9
19−26Season record31−15
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · ATL chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+12744%+12444.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12756%−14859.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.7
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.7our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.7 expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more42%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSBrayan Bello SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 13.09 ERA, 8 Kstarted
ATLGrant Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·ATL
May 16 at ATL
last game
May 16 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
BOS·ATL
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
3.7
runs / game
5.3
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.3
19−26
season record
31−15
8−14
home record
15−8
11−12
away record
16−7
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
9.1
0.73
home runs / game
1.39
3.1
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.49
errors / game
0.41

Rating Trend

BOS · ATL · 53 days
Boston Red SoxAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
May 16at ATLBOS 3 − 2
May 15at ATLATL 3 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at ATLBOS 3 − 1
May 31, 2025at ATLATL 5 − 0
May 30, 2025at ATLBOS 5 − 1
May 18, 2025at BOSATL 10 − 4
May 17, 2025at BOSBOS 7 − 6
May 16, 2025at BOSATL 4 − 2
Jun 5, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 0
Jun 4, 2024at BOSATL 8 − 3

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
May 16at ATL3 − 2W
May 15at ATL2 − 3L
May 14vs PHI1 − 3L
May 13vs PHI3 − 1W
May 12vs PHI1 − 2L
May 10vs TB1 − 4L
May 8vs TB2 − 0W
May 7vs TB4 − 8L
May 6at DET4 − 0W
May 5at DET10 − 3W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 16vs BOS2 − 3L
May 15vs BOS3 − 2W
May 14vs CHC0 − 2L
May 13vs CHC4 − 1W
May 12vs CHC5 − 2W
May 10at LAD7 − 2W
May 9at LAD7 − 2W
May 8at LAD1 − 3L
May 6at SEA1 − 3L
May 5at SEA3 − 2W