bayesRatings

Red Sox at Braves

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final BOS 3 – ATL 2
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000100020371
ATL100010000241
Team box
BOS·ATL
7
hits
4
1
home runs
1
0
walks
3
5
strikeouts
3
105
pitches thrown
117
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drake BaldwinATL2-3112
Willson ContrerasBOS2-4112
Jose AzocarATL2-3100
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-4100
Jarren DuranBOS1-4000
Masataka YoshidaBOS0-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Payton Tolle (W)BOS8.04213
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00020
Bryce Elder (L)ATL8.07303

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: ATL 1 · BOS 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 44%, ATL 56% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 4.7 – 3.9 BOS
Expected total
8.5
Red SoxThe matchupBraves
+130Our fair odds−130
3.9Expected runs4.7
+0.03Power rating+0.20
3.7Runs / game5.3
4.0Allowed / game3.3
7.8Hits / game9.2
0.73Home runs / game1.40
3.2Walks drawn / game2.9
18−26Season record31−14
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · ATL chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshi50.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+13044%−10350.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−13056%−12154.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.8our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 15%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 11%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 16 Kstarted
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·ATL
May 15 at ATL
last game
May 15 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
5
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
BOS·ATL
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
3.7
runs / game
5.3
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.3
18−26
season record
31−14
8−14
home record
15−7
10−12
away record
16−7
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.8
hits / game
9.2
0.73
home runs / game
1.40
3.2
walks drawn / game
2.9
8.5
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.48
errors / game
0.40

Rating Trend

BOS · ATL · 52 days
Boston Red SoxAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 6−4
May 15at ATLATL 3 − 2
Jun 1, 2025at ATLBOS 3 − 1
May 31, 2025at ATLATL 5 − 0
May 30, 2025at ATLBOS 5 − 1
May 18, 2025at BOSATL 10 − 4
May 17, 2025at BOSBOS 7 − 6
May 16, 2025at BOSATL 4 − 2
Jun 5, 2024at BOSBOS 9 − 0
Jun 4, 2024at BOSATL 8 − 3
May 8, 2024at ATLATL 5 − 0

BOS · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 15at ATL2 − 3L
May 14vs PHI1 − 3L
May 13vs PHI3 − 1W
May 12vs PHI1 − 2L
May 10vs TB1 − 4L
May 8vs TB2 − 0W
May 7vs TB4 − 8L
May 6at DET4 − 0W
May 5at DET10 − 3W
May 4at DET5 − 4W

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 15vs BOS3 − 2W
May 14vs CHC0 − 2L
May 13vs CHC4 − 1W
May 12vs CHC5 − 2W
May 10at LAD7 − 2W
May 9at LAD7 − 2W
May 8at LAD1 − 3L
May 6at SEA1 − 3L
May 5at SEA3 − 2W
May 4at SEA4 − 5L