bayesRatings

Astros at Twins

MLB · Wednesday, May 20 · 12:40 PM CT · Target Field · Final HOU 1 – MIN 4
← MLB / May 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
HOU010000000150
MIN01030000460
Team box
HOU·MIN
5
hits
6
0
home runs
2
0
walks
3
15
strikeouts
3
112
pitches thrown
145
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan KreidlerMIN1-3113
Victor CaratiniMIN2-4211
Christian VazquezHOU1-2001
Cam SmithHOU2-3000
Jeremy PenaHOU1-4000
Zach DezenzoHOU1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mike Burrows (L)HOU6.06432
Joe Ryan (W)MIN6.04109
Andrew Morris (S)MIN1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
HOU +3
123456789
largest lead: MIN 3 · HOU 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 48%, MIN 52% · Updated May 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 4.7 – 4.7 HOU
Expected total
9.3
AstrosThe matchupTwins
+107Our fair odds−107
4.7Expected runs4.7
−0.10Power rating−0.12
4.3Runs / game4.6
5.4Allowed / game4.7
8.3Hits / game7.8
1.20Home runs / game1.08
3.4Walks drawn / game3.7
20−30Season record22−27
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · MIN chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Astros+10748%+11945.7%———
MINMinnesota Twins−10752%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
HOUHouston AstrosPKour margin————
MINMinnesota TwinsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Houston Astros by 13 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 12 runs: <1%Houston Astros by 11 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 10 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 9 runs: 1%Houston Astros by 8 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 7 runs: 2%Houston Astros by 6 runs: 3%Houston Astros by 5 runs: 4%Houston Astros by 4 runs: 6%Houston Astros by 3 runs: 7%Houston Astros by 2 runs: 10%Houston Astros by 1 run: 12%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 7%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 5%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%
← HOU wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more36%
Minnesota Twins wins by 3 or more27%
Houston Astros wins by 2 or more37%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
HOUMike Burrows SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 4.82 ERA, 13 Kstarted
MINJoe Ryan SP · last 3 starts: 12.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·MIN
May 19 at MIN
last game
May 19 vs HOU
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 49+ games
HOU·MIN
−0.10
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
4.3
runs / game
4.6
5.4
runs allowed / game
4.7
20−30
season record
22−27
12−14
home record
14−14
8−16
away record
8−13
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.3
hits / game
7.8
1.20
home runs / game
1.08
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.36
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

HOU · MIN · 56 days
Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 4−6
May 19at MINHOU 2 − 1
May 18at MINMIN 6 − 3
Jun 15, 2025at HOUHOU 2 − 1
Jun 14, 2025at HOUHOU 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2025at HOUHOU 10 − 3
Apr 6, 2025at MINHOU 9 − 7
Apr 5, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 1
Apr 3, 2025at MINHOU 5 − 2
Jul 7, 2024at MINMIN 3 − 2
Jul 6, 2024at MINMIN 9 − 3

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 19at MIN2 − 1W
May 18at MIN3 − 6L
May 17vs TEX0 − 8L
May 16vs TEX4 − 1W
May 15vs TEX2 − 0W
May 14vs SEA3 − 8L
May 13vs SEA4 − 3W
May 12vs SEA2 − 10L
May 11vs SEA1 − 3L
May 10at CIN0 − 5L

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 19vs HOU1 − 2L
May 18vs HOU6 − 3W
May 17vs MIL5 − 4W
May 16vs MIL1 − 2L
May 15vs MIL2 − 3L
May 14vs MIA9 − 1W
May 13vs MIA5 − 9L
May 12vs MIA3 − 0W
May 10at CLE5 − 4W
May 9at CLE2 − 1W