bayesRatings

Pirates at Blue Jays

MLB · Sunday, May 24 · 11:15 AM CT · Rogers Centre · Final PIT 4 – TOR 1
← MLB / May 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT110002000460
TOR000100000150
Team box
PIT·TOR
6
hits
5
3
home runs
0
4
walks
5
12
strikeouts
8
157
pitches thrown
140
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT1-3112
Oneil CruzPIT1-4111
Spencer HorwitzPIT1-4111
Ernie ClementTOR1-4001
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-3000
Brandon LowePIT1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch Keller (W)PIT6.04135
Gregory Soto (S)PIT1.00011
Dylan Cease (L)TOR4.24218

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
PIT +3
123456789
largest lead: TOR 0 · PIT 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 45%, TOR 55% · Updated May 24

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.5 – 4.1 PIT
Expected total
8.6
PiratesThe matchupBlue Jays
+120Our fair odds−120
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.03Power rating+0.08
4.8Runs / game4.1
4.5Allowed / game4.2
8.7Hits / game8.2
1.00Home runs / game0.90
3.9Walks drawn / game2.9
26−26Season record25−27
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · TOR chance
Our model fair45.4%54.6%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:15 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+12045%+14640.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−12055%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.4our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 8%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more39%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more29%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 6.23 ERA, 10 Kstarted
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.84 ERA, 28 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·TOR
May 23 at TOR
last game
May 23 vs PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 52+ games
PIT·TOR
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
4.8
runs / game
4.1
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.2
26−26
season record
25−27
13−13
home record
15−11
13−13
away record
10−16
L2
streak
W4
3−7
last 10
7−3
8.7
hits / game
8.2
1.00
home runs / game
0.90
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.1
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.56
errors / game
0.63

Rating Trend

PIT · TOR · 60 days
Pittsburgh PiratesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 7−3
May 23at TORTOR 5 − 2
May 22at TORTOR 6 − 2
Aug 20, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at PITTOR 7 − 3
Aug 18, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 2
Jun 2, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 4
Jun 1, 2024at TORPIT 8 − 1
May 31, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 3
May 7, 2023at PITTOR 10 − 1
May 6, 2023at PITTOR 8 − 2

PIT · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 23at TOR2 − 5L
May 22at TOR2 − 6L
May 21at STL6 − 2W
May 20at STL7 − 0W
May 19at STL6 − 9L
May 17vs PHI0 − 6L
May 16vs PHI0 − 6L
May 15vs PHI9 − 11L
May 14vs COL7 − 2W
May 13vs COL4 − 10L

TOR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
May 23vs PIT5 − 2W
May 22vs PIT6 − 2W
May 21at NYY2 − 0W
May 20at NYY2 − 1W
May 19at NYY4 − 5L
May 18at NYY6 − 7L
May 17at DET4 − 1W
May 16at DET2 − 1W
May 15at DET2 − 3L
May 13vs TB5 − 3W