bayesRatings

Pirates at Cardinals

MLB · Tuesday, May 19 · 6:45 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final PIT 6 – STL 9
← MLB / May 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
PIT00004000206120
STL0021020103992
Team box
PIT·STL
12
hits
9
0
home runs
4
4
walks
4
13
strikeouts
7
138
pitches thrown
169
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ivan HerreraSTL1-5113
JJ WetherholtSTL2-4212
Nolan GormanSTL1-3112
Alec BurlesonSTL2-3311
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-4102
Oneil CruzPIT2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch KellerPIT5.24413
Mason Montgomery (L)PIT0.02200
Matthew LiberatoreSTL4.27429
George Soriano (W)STL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
PIT +3
12345678910
largest lead: STL 3 · PIT 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 47%, STL 53% · Updated May 19

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.2 – 4.2 PIT
Expected total
8.3
PiratesThe matchupCardinals
+115Our fair odds−115
4.2Expected runs4.2
−0.03Power rating+0.02
4.9Runs / game4.5
4.5Allowed / game4.5
8.6Hits / game8.1
1.04Home runs / game1.11
4.0Walks drawn / game3.4
24−23Season record27−19
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · STL chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:45 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+11547%−10350.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11553%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh PiratesPKour margin————
STLSt. Louis CardinalsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 18%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%
← PIT wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more35%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more25%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 4.34 ERA, 13 Kstarted
STLMatthew Liberatore SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·STL
May 17 vs PHI
last game
May 17 vs KC
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
PIT·STL
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.9
runs / game
4.5
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.5
24−23
season record
27−19
13−13
home record
12−11
11−10
away record
15−8
L3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.6
hits / game
8.1
1.04
home runs / game
1.11
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.53
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

PIT · STL · 55 days
Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 6−4
Apr 30at PITSTL 10 − 5
Apr 29at PITSTL 5 − 4
Apr 28at PITSTL 11 − 7
Apr 27at PITSTL 4 − 2
Aug 28, 2025at STLSTL 4 − 1
Aug 27, 2025at STLPIT 2 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at STLPIT 8 − 3
Aug 25, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 6
Jul 2, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 0
Jul 1, 2025at PITPIT 1 − 0

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
May 17vs PHI0 − 6L
May 16vs PHI0 − 6L
May 15vs PHI9 − 11L
May 14vs COL7 − 2W
May 13vs COL4 − 10L
May 12vs COL3 − 1W
May 10at SF6 − 7L
May 9at SF13 − 3W
May 8at SF2 − 5L
May 7at ARI4 − 2W

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 17vs KC0 − 2L
May 16vs KC4 − 2W
May 15vs KC5 − 4W
May 14at ATH5 − 4W
May 13at ATH2 − 6L
May 12at ATH6 − 4W
May 10at SD2 − 3L
May 9at SD2 − 4L
May 8at SD6 − 0W
May 7at SD2 − 1W