bayesRatings

Phillies at Pirates

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final PHI 11 – PIT 9
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
PHI000120203311142
PIT00601100019111
Team box
PHI·PIT
14
hits
11
2
home runs
3
2
walks
4
7
strikeouts
11
193
pitches thrown
180
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle SchwarberPHI3-5225
Brandon LowePIT2-5223
Bryce HarperPHI4-5102
Marcell OzunaPIT1-4112
Oneil CruzPIT2-4102
Rafael MarchanPHI1-1002
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron NolaPHI3.26632
Jose Alvarado (W)PHI1.01003
Orion Kerkering (S)PHI1.00011
Braxton AshcraftPIT6.27405
Dennis Santana (L)PIT0.04200

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +6
PHI +6
12345678910
largest lead: PIT 6 · PHI 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 49%, PIT 51% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 4.1 – 4.0 PHI
Expected total
8.2
PhilliesThe matchupPirates
+103Our fair odds−103
4.0Expected runs4.1
+0.07Power rating+0.00
4.0Runs / game5.0
4.7Allowed / game4.3
7.9Hits / game8.7
1.18Home runs / game1.05
2.9Walks drawn / game4.1
21−23Season record24−20
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · PIT chance
Our model fair49.2%50.8%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+10349%+11446.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10351%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+0.1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 5%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 6%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more36%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 3 or more26%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 15 Kstarted
PITBraxton Ashcraft SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.32 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·PIT
May 14 at BOS
last game
May 14 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
PHI·PIT
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.0
runs / game
5.0
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.3
21−23
season record
24−20
12−12
home record
13−10
9−11
away record
11−10
W1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
8.7
1.18
home runs / game
1.05
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.1
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
9.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.45
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

PHI · PIT · 51 days
Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Jun 8, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 1
Jun 7, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4
May 18, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
May 17, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 2
May 16, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 4
Jul 21, 2024at PITPHI 6 − 0
Jul 20, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 1
Jul 19, 2024at PITPIT 8 − 7
Apr 14, 2024at PHIPIT 9 − 2

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
May 14at BOS3 − 1W
May 13at BOS1 − 3L
May 12at BOS2 − 1W
May 10vs COL6 − 0W
May 9vs COL9 − 3W
May 8vs COL7 − 9L
May 7vs ATH1 − 12L
May 6vs ATH6 − 3W
May 5vs ATH9 − 1W
May 4at MIA1 − 0W

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 14vs COL7 − 2W
May 13vs COL4 − 10L
May 12vs COL3 − 1W
May 10at SF6 − 7L
May 9at SF13 − 3W
May 8at SF2 − 5L
May 7at ARI4 − 2W
May 6at ARI1 − 0W
May 5at ARI0 − 9L
May 3vs CIN1 − 0W