bayesRatings

Royals at Cardinals

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final KC 2 – STL 4
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000010001281
STL10002001480
Team box
KC·STL
8
hits
8
1
home runs
0
3
walks
1
2
strikeouts
4
110
pitches thrown
124
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jac CaglianoneKC2-4111
Alec BurlesonSTL1-3002
Victor Scott IISTL2-3001
Vinnie PasquantinoKC1-4001
Nathan ChurchSTL2-3100
Kyle IsbelKC1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Noah Cameron (L)KC6.05304
Kyle Leahy (W)STL6.05132
George Soriano (S)STL1.02100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 3 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 46%, STL 54% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.2 – 4.2 KC
Expected total
8.4
RoyalsThe matchupCardinals
+115Our fair odds−115
4.2Expected runs4.2
−0.03Power rating+0.02
4.1Runs / game4.6
4.6Allowed / game4.6
7.9Hits / game8.2
0.98Home runs / game1.16
3.6Walks drawn / game3.5
19−26Season record26−18
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · STL chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11546%−10751.8%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11554%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City RoyalsPKour margin————
STLSt. Louis CardinalsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 18%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%
← KC wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more35%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more25%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCNoah Cameron SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.74 ERA, 15 Kstarted
STLKyle Leahy SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 2.30 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·STL
May 15 at STL
last game
May 15 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
KC·STL
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.1
runs / game
4.6
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.6
19−26
season record
26−18
13−10
home record
11−10
6−16
away record
15−8
L5
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
8.2
0.98
home runs / game
1.16
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.2
0.36
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

KC · STL · 52 days
Kansas City RoyalsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
May 15at STLSTL 5 − 4
Jun 5, 2025at STLKC 7 − 5
Jun 5, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5
Jun 3, 2025at STLKC 10 − 7
May 18, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
May 17, 2025at KCSTL 1 − 0
May 16, 2025at KCSTL 10 − 3
Aug 10, 2024at KCKC 8 − 3
Aug 9, 2024at KCSTL 8 − 5
Jul 10, 2024at STLKC 8 − 5

KC · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
May 15at STL4 − 5L
May 14at CHW2 − 6L
May 13at CHW5 − 6L
May 12at CHW5 − 6L
May 10vs DET3 − 6L
May 9vs DET5 − 1W
May 8vs DET4 − 3W
May 7vs CLE5 − 8L
May 6vs CLE1 − 3L
May 5vs CLE5 − 3W

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
May 15vs KC5 − 4W
May 14at ATH5 − 4W
May 13at ATH2 − 6L
May 12at ATH6 − 4W
May 10at SD2 − 3L
May 9at SD2 − 4L
May 8at SD6 − 0W
May 7at SD2 − 1W
May 6vs MIL2 − 6L
May 4vs MIL6 − 3W