bayesRatings

Royals at White Sox

MLB · Wednesday, May 13 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final KC 5 – CHW 6
← MLB / May 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC000300002552
CHW021020106100
Team box
KC·CHW
5
hits
10
1
home runs
1
6
walks
4
10
strikeouts
8
145
pitches thrown
148
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Colson MontgomeryCHW3-4211
Bobby Witt Jr.KC1-3212
Jarred KelenicCHW2-3102
Tristan PetersCHW2-4101
Vinnie PasquantinoKC1-4002
Carter JensenKC2-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Seth Lugo (L)KC5.08524
Noah SchultzCHW4.12353
Tyler Davis (W)CHW1.20012
Seranthony Dominguez (S)CHW1.02201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: CHW 3 · KC 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 52%, CHW 48% · Updated May 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
KC 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
Expected total
8.5
RoyalsThe matchupWhite Sox
−110Our fair odds+110
4.5Expected runs4.0
−0.01Power rating−0.19
4.1Runs / game4.3
4.5Allowed / game4.6
8.0Hits / game7.6
1.02Home runs / game1.32
3.5Walks drawn / game3.9
19−23Season record20−21
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · CHW chance
Our model fair52.4%47.6%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals−11052%−11252.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox+11048%−10751.8%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals−0.4our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 13%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 16%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 9%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 7%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 4%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← KC wins byCHW wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more39%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more29%
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCSeth Lugo SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 7.16 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CHWNoah Schultz SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·CHW
May 12 at CHW
last game
May 12 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 41+ games
KC·CHW
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.19
4.1
runs / game
4.3
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.6
19−23
season record
20−21
13−10
home record
10−9
6−13
away record
10−12
L2
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
6−4
8.0
hits / game
7.6
1.02
home runs / game
1.32
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.33
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

KC · CHW · 49 days
Kansas City RoyalsChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 4−6
May 12at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Apr 12at KCCHW 6 − 5
Apr 11at KCKC 2 − 0
Apr 10at KCKC 2 − 0
Apr 9at KCCHW 2 − 0
Aug 27, 2025at CHWKC 12 − 1
Aug 26, 2025at CHWKC 5 − 4
Aug 25, 2025at CHWCHW 7 − 0
Aug 17, 2025at KCKC 6 − 2
Aug 16, 2025at KCKC 6 − 2

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
May 12at CHW5 − 6L
May 10vs DET3 − 6L
May 9vs DET5 − 1W
May 8vs DET4 − 3W
May 7vs CLE5 − 8L
May 6vs CLE1 − 3L
May 5vs CLE5 − 3W
May 4vs CLE6 − 2W
May 3at SEA4 − 1W
May 2at SEA3 − 2W

CHW · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 12vs KC6 − 5W
May 10vs SEA2 − 1W
May 9vs SEA6 − 1W
May 8vs SEA8 − 12L
May 6at LAA2 − 8L
May 5at LAA3 − 4L
May 4at LAA6 − 0W
May 3at SD3 − 4L
May 2at SD4 − 0W
May 1at SD8 − 2W