bayesRatings

Royals at Cardinals

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 1:15 PM CT · Busch Stadium · Final KC 2 – STL 0
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
KC100100000290
STL000000000051
Team box
KC·STL
9
hits
5
1
home runs
0
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
4
125
pitches thrown
137
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Salvador PerezKC2-2112
Kyle IsbelKC2-4000
Isaac CollinsKC1-4000
Vinnie PasquantinoKC1-4000
Michael MasseyKC1-3000
Maikel GarciaKC1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Stephen Kolek (W)KC6.14013
Lucas Erceg (S)KC1.00010
Andre Pallante (L)STL6.28107

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
KC +3
123456789
largest lead: STL 0 · KC 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 46%, STL 54% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 4.2 – 4.1 KC
Expected total
8.3
RoyalsThe matchupCardinals
+117Our fair odds−117
4.1Expected runs4.2
−0.04Power rating+0.03
4.1Runs / game4.6
4.6Allowed / game4.5
7.9Hits / game8.2
0.98Home runs / game1.13
3.6Walks drawn / game3.5
19−27Season record27−18
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · STL chance
Our model fair46.1%53.9%
Kalshi49.7%54.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Royals+11746%+10149.7%———
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−11754%−12154.7%———
Spreadabout even
KCKansas City Royals+0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Cardinals−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 4%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 7%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 10%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 11%St. Louis Cardinals by 1 run: 18%St. Louis Cardinals by 2 runs: 10%St. Louis Cardinals by 3 runs: 7%St. Louis Cardinals by 4 runs: 5%St. Louis Cardinals by 5 runs: 4%St. Louis Cardinals by 6 runs: 3%St. Louis Cardinals by 7 runs: 2%St. Louis Cardinals by 8 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 9 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 10 runs: 1%St. Louis Cardinals by 11 runs: <1%St. Louis Cardinals by 12 runs: <1%
← KC wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 2 or more35%
St. Louis Cardinals wins by 3 or more25%
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
KCStephen Kolek SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 5.40 ERA, 11 Kstarted
STLAndre Pallante SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 4.76 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·STL
May 16 at STL
last game
May 16 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
KC·STL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.1
runs / game
4.6
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.5
19−27
season record
27−18
13−10
home record
12−10
6−17
away record
15−8
L6
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
8.2
0.98
home runs / game
1.13
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.1
0.37
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

KC · STL · 53 days
Kansas City RoyalsSt. Louis Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 6−4
May 16at STLSTL 4 − 2
May 15at STLSTL 5 − 4
Jun 5, 2025at STLKC 7 − 5
Jun 5, 2025at STLSTL 6 − 5
Jun 3, 2025at STLKC 10 − 7
May 18, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
May 17, 2025at KCSTL 1 − 0
May 16, 2025at KCSTL 10 − 3
Aug 10, 2024at KCKC 8 − 3
Aug 9, 2024at KCSTL 8 − 5

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
May 16at STL2 − 4L
May 15at STL4 − 5L
May 14at CHW2 − 6L
May 13at CHW5 − 6L
May 12at CHW5 − 6L
May 10vs DET3 − 6L
May 9vs DET5 − 1W
May 8vs DET4 − 3W
May 7vs CLE5 − 8L
May 6vs CLE1 − 3L

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
May 16vs KC4 − 2W
May 15vs KC5 − 4W
May 14at ATH5 − 4W
May 13at ATH2 − 6L
May 12at ATH6 − 4W
May 10at SD2 − 3L
May 9at SD2 − 4L
May 8at SD6 − 0W
May 7at SD2 − 1W
May 6vs MIL2 − 6L