bayesRatings

Phillies at Pirates

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 12:35 PM CT · PNC Park · Final PHI 6 – PIT 0
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000023010680
PIT000000000050
Team box
PHI·PIT
8
hits
5
2
home runs
0
1
walks
1
13
strikeouts
9
123
pitches thrown
149
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Bryson StottPHI2-4113
Bryce HarperPHI1-4111
Trea TurnerPHI1-5001
Alec BohmPHI2-4100
J.T. RealmutoPHI1-4100
Brandon MarshPHI1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack Wheeler (W)PHI7.04018
Paul Skenes (L)PIT5.06517

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +5
PHI +5
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · PHI 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 50%, PIT 50% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.2 – 4.2 PIT
Expected total
8.4
PhilliesThe matchupPirates
−102Our fair odds+102
4.2Expected runs4.2
+0.09Power rating−0.02
4.2Runs / game5.0
4.7Allowed / game4.5
8.0Hits / game8.7
1.20Home runs / game1.07
3.0Walks drawn / game4.0
23−23Season record24−22
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · PIT chance
Our model fair50.4%49.6%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10250%+10947.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates+10250%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byPIT wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more36%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more26%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, 16 Kstarted
PITPaul Skenes SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 1.29 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·PIT
May 16 at PIT
last game
May 16 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
PHI·PIT
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.2
runs / game
5.0
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
23−23
season record
24−22
12−12
home record
13−12
11−11
away record
11−10
W3
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
8.7
1.20
home runs / game
1.07
3.0
walks drawn / game
4.0
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
9.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.48
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

PHI · PIT · 53 days
Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 4−6
May 16at PITPHI 6 − 0
May 15at PITPHI 11 − 9
Jun 8, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 1
Jun 7, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 1
Jun 6, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 4
May 18, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
May 17, 2025at PHIPHI 5 − 2
May 16, 2025at PHIPHI 8 − 4
Jul 21, 2024at PITPHI 6 − 0
Jul 20, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 1

PHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
May 16at PIT6 − 0W
May 15at PIT11 − 9W
May 14at BOS3 − 1W
May 13at BOS1 − 3L
May 12at BOS2 − 1W
May 10vs COL6 − 0W
May 9vs COL9 − 3W
May 8vs COL7 − 9L
May 7vs ATH1 − 12L
May 6vs ATH6 − 3W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
May 16vs PHI0 − 6L
May 15vs PHI9 − 11L
May 14vs COL7 − 2W
May 13vs COL4 − 10L
May 12vs COL3 − 1W
May 10at SF6 − 7L
May 9at SF13 − 3W
May 8at SF2 − 5L
May 7at ARI4 − 2W
May 6at ARI1 − 0W