bayesRatings

Pirates at Blue Jays

MLB · Friday, May 22 · 6:07 PM CT · Rogers Centre · Final PIT 2 – TOR 6
← MLB / May 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PIT100000010273
TOR00300003650
Team box
PIT·TOR
7
hits
5
0
home runs
0
2
walks
7
11
strikeouts
15
170
pitches thrown
133
3
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
George SpringerTOR1-3102
Yohendrick PinangoTOR1-4002
Brandon LowePIT2-3200
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4000
Endy RodriguezPIT2-4000
Jesus SanchezTOR1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bubba Chandler (L)PIT5.020311
Kevin Gausman (W)TOR6.26118
Louis Varland (S)TOR2.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +4
PIT +4
123456789
largest lead: TOR 4 · PIT 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 46%, TOR 54% · Updated May 22

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 4.5 – 4.1 PIT
Expected total
8.6
PiratesThe matchupBlue Jays
+116Our fair odds−116
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.01Power rating+0.07
5.0Runs / game4.0
4.4Allowed / game4.2
8.8Hits / game8.2
1.04Home runs / game0.90
3.9Walks drawn / game2.9
26−24Season record23−27
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · TOR chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshi42.7%61.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:07 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Pirates+11646%+13442.7%———
TORToronto Blue Jays−11654%−16161.7%———
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.3our margin————
TORToronto Blue Jays−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 10%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 13%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 16%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 10%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 7%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%
← PIT wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more38%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 5.54 ERA, 9 Kstarted
TORKevin Gausman SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.32 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·TOR
May 21 at STL
last game
May 21 at NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 50+ games
PIT·TOR
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.07
5.0
runs / game
4.0
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.2
26−24
season record
23−27
13−13
home record
13−11
13−11
away record
10−16
W2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.8
hits / game
8.2
1.04
home runs / game
0.90
3.9
walks drawn / game
2.9
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.0
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.50
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

PIT · TOR · 58 days
Pittsburgh PiratesToronto Blue Jays
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 7−3
Aug 20, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at PITTOR 7 − 3
Aug 18, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 2
Jun 2, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 4
Jun 1, 2024at TORPIT 8 − 1
May 31, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 3
May 7, 2023at PITTOR 10 − 1
May 6, 2023at PITTOR 8 − 2
May 5, 2023at PITTOR 4 − 0
Sep 4, 2022at PITTOR 4 − 3

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 21at STL6 − 2W
May 20at STL7 − 0W
May 19at STL6 − 9L
May 17vs PHI0 − 6L
May 16vs PHI0 − 6L
May 15vs PHI9 − 11L
May 14vs COL7 − 2W
May 13vs COL4 − 10L
May 12vs COL3 − 1W
May 10at SF6 − 7L

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 21at NYY2 − 0W
May 20at NYY2 − 1W
May 19at NYY4 − 5L
May 18at NYY6 − 7L
May 17at DET4 − 1W
May 16at DET2 − 1W
May 15at DET2 − 3L
May 13vs TB5 − 3W
May 12vs TB6 − 7L
May 11vs TB5 − 8L