bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Yankees

MLB · Tuesday, May 19 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TOR 4 – NYY 5
← MLB / May 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000300001490
NYY00032000560
Team box
TOR·NYY
9
hits
6
0
home runs
2
3
walks
6
7
strikeouts
12
142
pitches thrown
160
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan McMahonNYY2-4113
Ben RiceNYY1-4112
Daulton VarshoTOR4-5100
Andres GimenezTOR1-3101
Jesus SanchezTOR1-3001
Yohendrick PinangoTOR1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dylan Cease (L)TOR5.04549
Will Warren (W)NYY5.06313
Camilo Doval (S)NYY1.02110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 2 · TOR 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 43%, NYY 57% · Updated May 19

Expected margin
NYY by 0.8
Expected score
NYY 5.1 – 4.2 TOR
Expected total
9.3
Blue JaysThe matchupYankees
+135Our fair odds−135
4.2Expected runs5.1
+0.05Power rating+0.26
4.1Runs / game5.1
4.4Allowed / game3.6
8.2Hits / game7.8
0.94Home runs / game1.48
2.9Walks drawn / game4.6
21−26Season record29−19
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · NYY chance
Our model fair42.5%57.5%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+13543%+10947.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13557%−13156.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.8
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.8our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.8 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more43%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORDylan Cease SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 1.71 ERA, 26 Kstarted
NYYWill Warren SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 5.06 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·NYY
May 18 at NYY
last game
May 18 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 47+ games
TOR·NYY
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
4.1
runs / game
5.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.6
21−26
season record
29−19
13−11
home record
15−6
8−15
away record
14−13
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.2
hits / game
7.8
0.94
home runs / game
1.48
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.6
6.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.8
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.8
0.66
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

TOR · NYY · 55 days
Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
May 18at NYYNYY 7 − 6
Oct 8, 2025at NYYTOR 5 − 2post
Oct 7, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 6post
Oct 5, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 7post
Oct 4, 2025at TORTOR 10 − 1post
Sep 7, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at NYYTOR 7 − 1
Jul 23, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 4
Jul 22, 2025at TORNYY 5 − 4

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 18at NYY6 − 7L
May 17at DET4 − 1W
May 16at DET2 − 1W
May 15at DET2 − 3L
May 13vs TB5 − 3W
May 12vs TB6 − 7L
May 11vs TB5 − 8L
May 10vs LAA1 − 6L
May 9vs LAA14 − 1W
May 8vs LAA2 − 0W

NYY · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
May 18vs TOR7 − 6W
May 17at NYM6 − 7L
May 16at NYM3 − 6L
May 15at NYM5 − 2W
May 13at BAL0 − 7L
May 12at BAL6 − 2W
May 11at BAL2 − 3L
May 10at MIL3 − 4L
May 9at MIL3 − 4L
May 8at MIL0 − 6L