bayesRatings

Yankees at Mets

MLB · Saturday, May 16 · 6:15 PM CT · Citi Field · Final NYY 3 – NYM 6
← MLB / May 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY010010100391
NYM00212010681
Team box
NYY·NYM
9
hits
8
0
home runs
0
3
walks
5
14
strikeouts
11
173
pitches thrown
155
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mark VientosNYM1-4003
Carson BengeNYM3-4200
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4001
Juan SotoNYM2-2100
Brett BatyNYM1-4001
Aaron JudgeNYY2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Carlos Rodon (L)NYY3.23236
Huascar BrazobanNYM1.10002
David Peterson (W)NYM4.06238
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
NYY +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 3 · NYY 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 56%, NYM 44% · Updated May 16

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 5.0 – 4.0 NYM
Expected total
8.9
YankeesThe matchupMets
−128Our fair odds+128
5.0Expected runs4.0
+0.30Power rating−0.05
5.1Runs / game3.7
3.5Allowed / game4.2
7.7Hits / game7.5
1.49Home runs / game0.84
4.5Walks drawn / game3.0
28−17Season record18−26
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · NYM chance
Our model fair56.1%43.9%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12856%−12154.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+12844%+10149.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byNYM wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCarlos Rodon SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 8.53 ERA, 12 Kstarted
NYMHuascar Brazoban RP · last 3 starts: 3.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 1 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·NYM
May 15 at NYM
last game
May 15 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 44+ games
NYY·NYM
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
5.1
runs / game
3.7
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.2
28−17
season record
18−26
14−6
home record
9−13
14−11
away record
9−13
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
7.5
1.49
home runs / game
0.84
4.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.5
0.53
errors / game
0.50

Rating Trend

NYY · NYM · 52 days
New York YankeesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 6−4
May 15at NYMNYY 5 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at NYMNYY 6 − 4
Jul 5, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Jul 4, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 5
May 18, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 2
May 17, 2025at NYYNYM 3 − 2
May 16, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 2
Jul 24, 2024at NYYNYM 12 − 3
Jul 23, 2024at NYYNYM 3 − 2
Jun 26, 2024at NYMNYM 12 − 2

NYY · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
May 15at NYM5 − 2W
May 13at BAL0 − 7L
May 12at BAL6 − 2W
May 11at BAL2 − 3L
May 10at MIL3 − 4L
May 9at MIL3 − 4L
May 8at MIL0 − 6L
May 7vs TEX9 − 2W
May 6vs TEX1 − 6L
May 5vs TEX7 − 4W

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
May 15vs NYY2 − 5L
May 14vs DET9 − 4W
May 13vs DET3 − 2W
May 12vs DET10 − 2W
May 10at ARI1 − 5L
May 9at ARI1 − 2L
May 8at ARI3 − 1W
May 7at COL2 − 6L
May 6at COL10 − 5W
May 4at COL4 − 2W