bayesRatings

Yankees at Mets

MLB · Friday, May 15 · 6:15 PM CT · Citi Field · Final NYY 5 – NYM 2
← MLB / May 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYY0030100015100
NYM000000101251
Team box
NYY·NYM
10
hits
5
1
home runs
1
4
walks
3
11
strikeouts
10
142
pitches thrown
170
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ben RiceNYY3-5211
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY3-4102
Juan SotoNYM1-3111
Brett BatyNYM2-3001
Spencer JonesNYY2-4001
Cody BellingerNYY1-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Cam Schlittler (W)NYY6.22129
Clay Holmes (L)NYM4.17428

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +4
NYY +4
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · NYY 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 55%, NYM 45% · Updated May 15

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 5.0 – 4.0 NYM
Expected total
8.9
YankeesThe matchupMets
−125Our fair odds+125
5.0Expected runs4.0
+0.28Power rating−0.03
5.1Runs / game3.7
3.5Allowed / game4.1
7.6Hits / game7.6
1.50Home runs / game0.84
4.5Walks drawn / game3.0
27−17Season record18−25
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · NYM chance
Our model fair55.5%44.5%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12555%−14859.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+12545%+12444.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byNYM wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 0.51 ERA, 18 Kstarted
NYMClay Holmes SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 1.47 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·NYM
May 13 at BAL
last game
May 14 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 43+ games
NYY·NYM
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
5.1
runs / game
3.7
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.1
27−17
season record
18−25
14−6
home record
9−12
13−11
away record
9−13
L1
streak
W3
4−6
last 10
7−3
7.6
hits / game
7.6
1.50
home runs / game
0.84
4.5
walks drawn / game
3.0
8.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
8.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.4
0.55
errors / game
0.49

Rating Trend

NYY · NYM · 51 days
New York YankeesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 7−3
Jul 6, 2025at NYMNYY 6 − 4
Jul 5, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Jul 4, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 5
May 18, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 2
May 17, 2025at NYYNYM 3 − 2
May 16, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 2
Jul 24, 2024at NYYNYM 12 − 3
Jul 23, 2024at NYYNYM 3 − 2
Jun 26, 2024at NYMNYM 12 − 2
Jun 25, 2024at NYMNYM 9 − 7

NYY · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
May 13at BAL0 − 7L
May 12at BAL6 − 2W
May 11at BAL2 − 3L
May 10at MIL3 − 4L
May 9at MIL3 − 4L
May 8at MIL0 − 6L
May 7vs TEX9 − 2W
May 6vs TEX1 − 6L
May 5vs TEX7 − 4W
May 4vs BAL12 − 1W

NYM · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
May 14vs DET9 − 4W
May 13vs DET3 − 2W
May 12vs DET10 − 2W
May 10at ARI1 − 5L
May 9at ARI1 − 2L
May 8at ARI3 − 1W
May 7at COL2 − 6L
May 6at COL10 − 5W
May 4at COL4 − 2W
May 3at LAA5 − 1W