bayesRatings

Yankees at Mets

MLB · Sunday, May 17 · 12:40 PM CT · Citi Field · Final NYY 6 – NYM 7
← MLB / May 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
NYY0010041000660
NYM00010200317111
Team box
NYY·NYM
6
hits
11
1
home runs
1
9
walks
4
8
strikeouts
3
164
pitches thrown
167
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tyrone TaylorNYM1-3113
Anthony VolpeNYY2-3103
Ben RiceNYY1-5111
Marcus SemienNYM2-5201
Luis TorrensNYM1-2002
Mark VientosNYM2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Elmer RodriguezNYY4.15111
Tim Hill (L)NYY0.10000
Freddy PeraltaNYM5.02364
Devin Williams (W)NYM1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +4
NYY +4
12345678910
largest lead: NYM 1 · NYY 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYY 55%, NYM 45% · Updated May 17

Expected margin
NYY by 1.0
Expected score
NYY 5.0 – 4.0 NYM
Expected total
8.9
YankeesThe matchupMets
−123Our fair odds+123
5.0Expected runs4.0
+0.27Power rating−0.03
5.0Runs / game3.8
3.5Allowed / game4.1
7.7Hits / game7.5
1.46Home runs / game0.82
4.5Walks drawn / game3.1
28−18Season record19−26
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYY chance · NYM chance
Our model fair55.1%44.9%
Kalshi49.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYYNew York Yankees−12355%+10149.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+12345%−12655.7%———
SpreadNYY by 1.0
NYYNew York Yankees−1our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 1.0 expected
New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 7%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 11%New York Yankees by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← NYY wins byNYM wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more45%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more34%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYYElmer Rodriguez SP · last 2 starts: 8.2 IP, 5.19 ERA, 5 Kstarted
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.59 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYY·NYM
May 16 at NYM
last game
May 16 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 45+ games
NYY·NYM
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
5.0
runs / game
3.8
3.5
runs allowed / game
4.1
28−18
season record
19−26
14−6
home record
10−13
14−12
away record
9−13
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
7.5
1.46
home runs / game
0.82
4.5
walks drawn / game
3.1
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.6
0.54
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

NYY · NYM · 53 days
New York YankeesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 6−4
May 16at NYMNYM 6 − 3
May 15at NYMNYY 5 − 2
Jul 6, 2025at NYMNYY 6 − 4
Jul 5, 2025at NYMNYM 12 − 6
Jul 4, 2025at NYMNYM 6 − 5
May 18, 2025at NYYNYY 8 − 2
May 17, 2025at NYYNYM 3 − 2
May 16, 2025at NYYNYY 6 − 2
Jul 24, 2024at NYYNYM 12 − 3
Jul 23, 2024at NYYNYM 3 − 2

NYY · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
May 16at NYM3 − 6L
May 15at NYM5 − 2W
May 13at BAL0 − 7L
May 12at BAL6 − 2W
May 11at BAL2 − 3L
May 10at MIL3 − 4L
May 9at MIL3 − 4L
May 8at MIL0 − 6L
May 7vs TEX9 − 2W
May 6vs TEX1 − 6L

NYM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
May 16vs NYY6 − 3W
May 15vs NYY2 − 5L
May 14vs DET9 − 4W
May 13vs DET3 − 2W
May 12vs DET10 − 2W
May 10at ARI1 − 5L
May 9at ARI1 − 2L
May 8at ARI3 − 1W
May 7at COL2 − 6L
May 6at COL10 − 5W