bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Yankees

MLB · Monday, May 18 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TOR 6 – NYY 7
← MLB / May 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000311001692
NYY100200407110
Team box
TOR·NYY
9
hits
11
2
home runs
3
3
walks
4
13
strikeouts
5
158
pitches thrown
167
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ernie ClementTOR1-3214
Paul GoldschmidtNYY2-4112
Cody BellingerNYY2-4112
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY2-4112
George SpringerTOR2-5111
Anthony VolpeNYY2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Patrick CorbinTOR4.06333
Yariel Rodriguez (L)TOR0.13410
Ryan WeathersNYY5.17507
Paul Blackburn (W)NYY1.21001
David Bednar (S)NYY1.01122

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 2 · TOR 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 43%, NYY 57% · Updated May 18

Expected margin
NYY by 0.7
Expected score
NYY 5.0 – 4.3 TOR
Expected total
9.3
Blue JaysThe matchupYankees
+133Our fair odds−133
4.3Expected runs5.0
+0.06Power rating+0.26
4.1Runs / game5.0
4.3Allowed / game3.6
8.2Hits / game7.7
0.91Home runs / game1.45
2.9Walks drawn / game4.6
21−25Season record28−19
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · NYY chance
Our model fair43.0%57.0%
Kalshi41.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+13343%+14041.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13357%−16862.7%———
SpreadNYY by 0.7
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.7our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.7 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 4%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more42%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more32%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORPatrick Corbin SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA, 6 Kstarted
NYYRyan Weathers SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·NYY
May 17 at DET
last game
May 17 at NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 46+ games
TOR·NYY
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
4.1
runs / game
5.0
4.3
runs allowed / game
3.6
21−25
season record
28−19
13−11
home record
14−6
8−14
away record
14−13
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.2
hits / game
7.7
0.91
home runs / game
1.45
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.6
6.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.63
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

TOR · NYY · 54 days
Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 4−6
Oct 8, 2025at NYYTOR 5 − 2post
Oct 7, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 6post
Oct 5, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 7post
Oct 4, 2025at TORTOR 10 − 1post
Sep 7, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at NYYTOR 7 − 1
Jul 23, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 4
Jul 22, 2025at TORNYY 5 − 4
Jul 21, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 1

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
May 17at DET4 − 1W
May 16at DET2 − 1W
May 15at DET2 − 3L
May 13vs TB5 − 3W
May 12vs TB6 − 7L
May 11vs TB5 − 8L
May 10vs LAA1 − 6L
May 9vs LAA14 − 1W
May 8vs LAA2 − 0W
May 6at TB0 − 3L

NYY · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
May 17at NYM6 − 7L
May 16at NYM3 − 6L
May 15at NYM5 − 2W
May 13at BAL0 − 7L
May 12at BAL6 − 2W
May 11at BAL2 − 3L
May 10at MIL3 − 4L
May 9at MIL3 − 4L
May 8at MIL0 − 6L
May 7vs TEX9 − 2W