bayesRatings

Blue Jays at Yankees

MLB · Wednesday, May 20 · 6:05 PM CT · Yankee Stadium · Final TOR 2 – NYY 1
← MLB / May 20

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
TOR000000200281
NYY000000001150
Team box
TOR·NYY
8
hits
5
0
home runs
0
2
walks
0
11
strikeouts
11
145
pitches thrown
131
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Paul GoldschmidtNYY1-4001
Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY2-4000
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.TOR1-3001
Andres GimenezTOR1-3001
Jesus SanchezTOR2-2000
Cody BellingerNYY1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trey Yesavage (W)TOR6.02008
Louis Varland (S)TOR1.01002
Cam Schlittler (L)NYY6.08227

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYY +3
TOR +3
123456789
largest lead: NYY 0 · TOR 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 43%, NYY 57% · Updated May 20

Expected margin
NYY by 0.8
Expected score
NYY 5.1 – 4.2 TOR
Expected total
9.3
Blue JaysThe matchupYankees
+135Our fair odds−135
4.2Expected runs5.1
+0.05Power rating+0.27
4.1Runs / game5.1
4.4Allowed / game3.7
8.2Hits / game7.7
0.92Home runs / game1.49
2.9Walks drawn / game4.6
21−27Season record30−19
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · NYY chance
Our model fair42.5%57.5%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Blue Jays+13543%+14640.7%———
NYYNew York Yankees−13557%−17563.6%———
SpreadNYY by 0.8
TORToronto Blue Jays+0.8our margin————
NYYNew York Yankees−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Yankees by 0.8 expected
Toronto Blue Jays by 14 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 13 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 12 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 11 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 10 runs: <1%Toronto Blue Jays by 9 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 8 runs: 1%Toronto Blue Jays by 7 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 6 runs: 2%Toronto Blue Jays by 5 runs: 3%Toronto Blue Jays by 4 runs: 5%Toronto Blue Jays by 3 runs: 6%Toronto Blue Jays by 2 runs: 9%Toronto Blue Jays by 1 run: 12%New York Yankees by 1 run: 15%New York Yankees by 2 runs: 10%New York Yankees by 3 runs: 8%New York Yankees by 4 runs: 6%New York Yankees by 5 runs: 5%New York Yankees by 6 runs: 4%New York Yankees by 7 runs: 3%New York Yankees by 8 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 9 runs: 2%New York Yankees by 10 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 11 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 12 runs: 1%New York Yankees by 13 runs: <1%New York Yankees by 14 runs: <1%
← TOR wins byNYY wins by →
New York Yankees wins by 2 or more43%
New York Yankees wins by 3 or more33%
Toronto Blue Jays wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
TORTrey Yesavage SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 1.93 ERA, 18 Kstarted
NYYCam Schlittler SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 0.98 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·NYY
May 19 at NYY
last game
May 19 vs TOR
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 48+ games
TOR·NYY
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
4.1
runs / game
5.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
3.7
21−27
season record
30−19
13−11
home record
16−6
8−16
away record
14−13
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
7.7
0.92
home runs / game
1.49
2.9
walks drawn / game
4.6
6.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.9
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.7
0.65
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

TOR · NYY · 56 days
Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYY 5−5
May 19at NYYNYY 5 − 4
May 18at NYYNYY 7 − 6
Oct 8, 2025at NYYTOR 5 − 2post
Oct 7, 2025at NYYNYY 9 − 6post
Oct 5, 2025at TORTOR 13 − 7post
Oct 4, 2025at TORTOR 10 − 1post
Sep 7, 2025at NYYNYY 4 − 3
Sep 6, 2025at NYYNYY 3 − 1
Sep 5, 2025at NYYTOR 7 − 1
Jul 23, 2025at TORTOR 8 − 4

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
May 19at NYY4 − 5L
May 18at NYY6 − 7L
May 17at DET4 − 1W
May 16at DET2 − 1W
May 15at DET2 − 3L
May 13vs TB5 − 3W
May 12vs TB6 − 7L
May 11vs TB5 − 8L
May 10vs LAA1 − 6L
May 9vs LAA14 − 1W

NYY · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
May 19vs TOR5 − 4W
May 18vs TOR7 − 6W
May 17at NYM6 − 7L
May 16at NYM3 − 6L
May 15at NYM5 − 2W
May 13at BAL0 − 7L
May 12at BAL6 − 2W
May 11at BAL2 − 3L
May 10at MIL3 − 4L
May 9at MIL3 − 4L